Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22c92957ff25a6321cd101cde149264c480e8ac47e434437630eb59e7feabdc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2148…4381backed Yes | 4c | 3,045$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.85 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 13c | 1,016$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.12 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 8c | 765.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 21c | 606.19$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.59 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 6c | 523.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 19c | 470.36$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 12c | 400.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 15c | 389.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 379.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 376.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 25c | 373.23$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 358.15$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.57 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 11c | 352.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 14c | 323.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 41c | 298.86$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.46 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be3…27a5backed Yes | 9c | 290.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 60c | 266.96$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 61c | 263.71$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.52 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 252.04$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 13c | 219.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 219.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 212.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 19c | 210.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…232dbacked Yes | 13c | 203.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 42c | 186.17$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 185.13$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 10c | 173.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…453ebacked Yes | 16c | 153.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d7…1a16backed Yes | 62c | 153.54$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 150.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 30c | 142.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 80c | 141.64$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 14c | 126.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…80e5backed Yes | 18c | 112.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 18c | 104.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…8834backed Yes | 62c | 101.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 16c | 98.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…5643backed Yes | 18c | 96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 18c | 93.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cff…eeb8backed Yes | 61c | 92.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 92.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 78c | 84.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8417…25c6backed Yes | 18c | 81.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 62c | 76.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 45c | 69.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 61c | 68.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f8…d99bbacked Yes | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 18c | 59.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa00…3316backed Yes | 67c | 55.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 23c | 54.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 29c | 51.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 24c | 50.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a79…8e4cbacked No | 80c | 49.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 61c | 49.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…7d9bbacked No | 51c | 42.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 50c | 37.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 80c | 36.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 56c | 35.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…1098backed Yes | 60c | 33.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x677b…f4eabacked Yes | 67c | 30.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 56c | 28.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 80c | 22.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…97c9backed No | 77c | 21.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd9…2b6ebacked Yes | 79c | 14.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.