Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a62c84cbbfdc5b61567821aaedb010e57e45046786a60c12cc93fa5f62c0e4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 1,252$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 2c | 910.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 8c | 633.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 612.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 5c | 600.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 422.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 395.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2876…752fbacked Yes | 27c | 373.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 9c | 358.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 6c | 346.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 327.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 11c | 297.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 5c | 289.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 283.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 279.19$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…8eb4backed Yes | 12c | 249.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db9…cdc5backed Yes | 44c | 227.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 8c | 199.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…98d0backed Yes | 7c | 193.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 16c | 184.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 9c | 175$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 30c | 173.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed No | 71c | 169.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 11c | 162.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 11c | 161.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 20c | 159.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 157.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 73c | 156.21$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 145.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 8c | 138.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 78c | 137.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 130.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 8c | 129$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 120.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 78c | 118.6$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 105$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 24c | 103.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 21c | 96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb6…98f4backed Yes | 25c | 92.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 75c | 85.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 22c | 70.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 68.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 25c | 67.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 28c | 65.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 76c | 64.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 61.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 61.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 60.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 25c | 55.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 50.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…5d00backed Yes | 28c | 38.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfa…2a2ebacked Yes | 30c | 38.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 28c | 36.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7729…6df4backed Yes | 28c | 36.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 68c | 32.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 31.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 30.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…1dd9backed No | 75c | 30.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 71c | 29.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 26.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 22.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…7986backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 68c | 17.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…312dbacked No | 74c | 15.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…d09cbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…c5edbacked No | 80c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.