TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,971
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,843

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,971 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd661…2750backed Yes26c838.75$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.0188028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2148…4381backed Yes48c610.41$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.411926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes9c592.36$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.621,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes16c450.97$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.824,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No74c353.47$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.461,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes77c337.84$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.293956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes16c308.18$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.351,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes41c306.16$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.685,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes15c300$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4696313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a2c…80e5backed Yes28c289.89$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.67616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-77.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes15c275.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.061,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No69c265.18$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.3412329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4a…f43dbacked Yes32c254.51$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.61127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes34c243.47$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.353,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc60…66a2backed Yes30c232.81$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c232.68$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed No69c224.17$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7814359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes23c215.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5052935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c214$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.415,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No60c211.28$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.674,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes28c206.74$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.481,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes25c205.88$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6398738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes10c199.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No53c191.98$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.181,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa00…3316backed Yes37c184.9$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.19850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes11c181.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No63c172$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5476755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes30c164.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0236648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No73c162.37$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.822,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c150$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.154,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No71c145.15$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0940265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes67c142.54$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.081,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes29c141.24$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5633535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes14c141.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6793034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0273…6ca1backed Yes15c135.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205056%28 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-13%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No74c134.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7498571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No80c133.37$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.972,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No80c132$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6342160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No44c127.79$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9184124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21fb…842cbacked Yes14c125.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.224934.7%17 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes75c121.51$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5217358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes28c119.43$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.137,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes25c101.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.021,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes16c100.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.968,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc0…7c44backed Yes20c100.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes12c99.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1234922.9%80 W · 269 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a4d…4c76backed Yes78c97.66$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No68c85$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.53,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes29c84.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8132440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes64c82.79$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.153,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb00…5461backed Yes28c77.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7819648.5%95 W · 101 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No70c73.11$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.041,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No21c72.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.81,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes51c67.52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.651,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f8…d99bbacked Yes42c65.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.821338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes17c64.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x259b…453ebacked Yes39c64.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No65c57.55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3813755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes21c53.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.340525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes38c52.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0320144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes29c52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.130565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd57b…7358backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes29c49.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.510434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No41c48.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4321848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507d…7d9bbacked No63c47.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.621735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes35c46.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1627421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No57c41.68$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8399962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed Yes79c40.39$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8367158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1266735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes34c39.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.375549.1%27 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes32c39.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.533349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c33.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.274,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No68c33.61$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7681756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8529…1449backed Yes49c31.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.451330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No75c26.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.582,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No62c26.47$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.991,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x995a…7deabacked Yes76c26.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2db9…cdc5backed Yes49c25.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.67633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4786…ff95backed Yes51c25.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No67c25.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3550261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c24.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.752,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No55c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4549854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x681f…02d0backed Yes64c20.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0786…df1dbacked Yes60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1223060.9%140 W · 90 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f8…e95bbacked Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.267336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.91,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked No77c18.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1213274.2%98 W · 34 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked No79c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7833561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ec…d09cbacked No74c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.641560%9 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.