TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,160
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,810

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,160 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1851…ae47backed No1c1,535$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.87313.7%10 W · 63 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No1c1,338$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5396313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No3c731.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6557044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No6c719$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3584124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No3c656.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No71c606.54$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.2812329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No32c605.12$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.582,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2148…4381backed Yes30c499.98$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.271926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes28c479.7$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.7334624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No64c465.42$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.581,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes29c392.88$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.85,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes12c368.9$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.2915923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc60…66a2backed Yes37c338.66$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.82540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes5c286.96$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.9652935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes18c285.72$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.4498738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes8c285.27$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.8613430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes28c278.38$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.43,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes29c274.59$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.8356543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb00…5461backed Yes26c270.97$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.9219648.5%95 W · 101 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes31c263.74$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.0812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No25c252.03$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.131,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No58c234.96$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.963,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes29c229.7$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.7136648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes23c228.37$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.733535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No44c225.67$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.392,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes13c201.42$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.3730428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes20c199.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.9834918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a2c…80e5backed No19c197.5$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.52616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-77.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes39c194.65$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.444,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No32c191.76$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6776755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No9c187.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.611,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes25c184.63$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.765549.1%27 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No31c166.71$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4571159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes25c164$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.093,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507d…7d9bbacked No13c152.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2db9…cdc5backed Yes30c150.74$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.24633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes12c147.59$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.441,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes21c142.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.1193034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes12c142.38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.622,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa00…3316backed Yes25c135.5$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.57850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes27c131.56$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.3611438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No48c120.54$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No15c120.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.987,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xbea2…2d33backed No77c118.6$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.246561.5%40 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes18c117.7$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4833232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.581,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8021236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes15c99.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.9916335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9c8…2e9abacked Yes25c98.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.78955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+79.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed Yes80c96.68$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3414359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No41c93.72$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2999962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes24c92.65$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6110434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No76c92.11$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7011459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No22c91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.281,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No26c90.65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.991,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed No70c84.33$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.039341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No70c76.51$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4924466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes25c70.8$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.125536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes21c70$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.36317.5%11 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe168…f375backed Yes27c69.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.914731.9%15 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c66.6$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.385,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes43c66.33$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9220546.8%96 W · 109 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes23c66.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0928742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No77c63.4$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.882,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No80c63.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.41,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bf4…d969backed Yes24c62.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.51127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No75c61.39$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8548919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No72c60$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.430565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7082…3a10backed Yes25c59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.253528.6%10 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes30c56.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.936431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes68c55.53$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.664753.2%25 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed Yes30c55.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.724447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes36c54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7295852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Yes28c53.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4511122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8417…25c6backed Yes28c52.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No69c52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.889,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes28c52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4491444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No39c51.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4016724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.540132.9%132 W · 269 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x99e7…44c3backed Yes38c49.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.986729.9%20 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c42.1$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.844,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f42…cd3cbacked No74c40.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012851.6%66 W · 62 L-13.1wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-25.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x109e…9a31backed No77c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.83844.7%17 W · 21 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3f93…bc8cbacked Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd57b…7358backed No71c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cff…468bbacked No77c35.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0816263%102 W · 60 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes33c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4567633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.724,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe256…0408backed Yes31c33.52$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.133641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes76c33.34$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0698160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x031d…87d1backed No73c33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.094330.2%13 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid+11.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8529…1449backed Yes52c32.56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.491330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes50c32.02$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0285049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes31c31.9$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.95135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes71c30.64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No80c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8525766.1%170 W · 87 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8d…038bbacked No76c29.19$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1829469.7%205 W · 89 L+26.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No74c29.12$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5465965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.