AI · resolved market
Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1500?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16b01984e98d5293525171323e520918c94c0906e0527be523ce7d0036da85e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $171,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb11a…edfdbacked Yes | 0c | 26,120$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…6d71backed Yes | 11c | 18,764$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x411b…2462backed Yes | 1c | 16,174$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes | 0c | 15,582$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b21…37b5backed Yes | 1c | 13,331$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…719bbacked Yes | 7c | 10,201$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked No | 41c | 4,293$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,528.68 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 9c | 3,332$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,618$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 70c | 2,384$1,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.94 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…9fd3backed Yes | 1c | 1,904$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…9165backed Yes | 1c | 1,874$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,396$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 33c | 1,035$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.27 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 62c | 799.99$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.99 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 70c | 790$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.9 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 16c | 746.82$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.27 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 8c | 624.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 299.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 259.06$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.29 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 10c | 236.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes | 36c | 225$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8372…49e8backed Yes | 12c | 201.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…59b3backed Yes | 71c | 200.17$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked Yes | 72c | 199.8$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed No | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…0e0cbacked Yes | 36c | 138.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 67c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked No | 29c | 98.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 32c | 88.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 70c | 82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 30c | 78.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…0868backed Yes | 74c | 78.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…6694backed No | 20c | 74.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +633.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…9253backed Yes | 67c | 72.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 36c | 68.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 37c | 65.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…d253backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588f…3eabbacked Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc002…6f57backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 48c | 59.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x630d…bc8dbacked Yes | 80c | 59.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 71c | 49.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf850…bfa9backed Yes | 60c | 38.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 38.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 57c | 34.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc02c…7c6abacked No | 78c | 29.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4de…3920backed Yes | 70c | 28.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 68c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef7d…2ed8backed Yes | 80c | 26.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…09d5backed Yes | 70c | 24.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x922e…d3b8backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c55…7ef8backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe4…5221backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f920backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9a…ddc8backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cd…33d4backed Yes | 59c | 18.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…ddbcbacked Yes | 73c | 17.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1500?this page
- Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1480?Yes won
- Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1520?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.