Weather · resolved market
Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82b901c4ba7f79d39877c43f76ff6995827e6dd9f7ac5ebbb02d1d92b0ab90fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 47c | 3,052$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,247$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.24 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 52c | 1,190$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.2 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 52c | 719$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.88 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c43…c080backed Yes | 17c | 672.02$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 51c | 628$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.28 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 53c | 612.99$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 523.05$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.45 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…978ebacked Yes | 21c | 501.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked Yes | 14c | 451.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 18c | 434.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…ca41backed Yes | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed Yes | 53c | 375$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8a8abacked Yes | 21c | 371.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 14c | 287$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 30c | 171$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 149.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 77c | 148.5$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf06…461ebacked Yes | 52c | 132$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…84a0backed Yes | 17c | 113.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 28c | 110.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 30c | 98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 23c | 96.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 92.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…23f9backed Yes | 51c | 86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4c…609abacked Yes | 53c | 80.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 55c | 79.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 78.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d1…959bbacked Yes | 53c | 78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…966cbacked Yes | 53c | 75.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…279fbacked Yes | 53c | 73.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 63.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 56.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 22c | 55.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 59c | 52.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…29b4backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 32c | 47.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…621ebacked No | 49c | 46.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 45.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 44c | 44.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 47c | 41.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 35c | 34.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…f288backed Yes | 77c | 32.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 27.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 27.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…00e4backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…09d5backed Yes | 54c | 24.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed Yes | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 52c | 23.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 59c | 17.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 66c | 17.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 59c | 17.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in July?this page
- Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in July?No won
- Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?Yes won
- Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in July?No won
- Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.