Weather · resolved market
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe86523395f1b955cf8c51e97508f0ad5a416e7897def4346f8253dfd5c02244e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 51c | 612.28$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.54 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c43…c080backed No | 72c | 532.74$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 22c | 420.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 36c | 350$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.59 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 230.66$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.29 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 64c | 212.78$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 52c | 191.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.73 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 53c | 173.02$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.77 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…2bb6backed Yes | 47c | 170.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.55 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 56c | 166.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 52c | 135.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 67c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 117$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 104.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 19c | 79.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 17c | 76.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 72.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 41c | 63.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 17c | 62.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 46c | 60.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 54c | 58.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 51.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…621ebacked No | 69c | 50.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f901backed Yes | 66c | 36.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 44cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 55c | 35.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 35.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed No | 62c | 34.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 64c | 34.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e4…2528backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 39c | 28.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 55cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…c43ebacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 65c | 26.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 71c | 24.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc461…fd3abacked Yes | 62c | 17.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +143.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…f288backed Yes | 66c | 16.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 69c | 15.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?this page
- Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in July?No won
- Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in July?No won
- Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in July?No won
- Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.