TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$378,283
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$368,017

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $378,283 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd49b…bdf9backed No2c52,593$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.865932.2%19 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b6…83c8backed No2c24,812$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No2c22,409$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.5448224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00b5…7c7abacked No4c21,081$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c17,846$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.454440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0b7…2d8cbacked No1c12,745$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No2c6,244$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.837317.8%13 W · 60 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-60.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked No3c4,323$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.622725.1%57 W · 170 L+0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x772e…22e7backed No1c3,951$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.12616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No5c3,720$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.221676.6%11 W · 156 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No1c3,694$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8638023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No2c3,692$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.355317%9 W · 44 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-71%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No1c3,506$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4713444.8%60 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd36f…0156backed No3c3,251$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed No2c2,500$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.51421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc392…511bbacked No4c2,500$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.51827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked No2c2,447$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d0f…2751backed No2c2,401$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x819d…a91dbacked No1c2,309$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a00…b948backed No1c2,207$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadd1…0dc0backed No5c2,062$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No6c2,006$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5813225%33 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f5d…b72fbacked Yes19c2,002$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.62333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa57…5726backed No7c1,913$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1887…92c1backed No3c1,798$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb56…253bbacked No2c1,437$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ce…ed1abacked No1c1,239$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc5…4626backed No7c1,212$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.83520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-73.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No5c1,093$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.081357.4%10 W · 125 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x823e…fc4fbacked No10c1,092$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.79650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+68%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No3c979.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.751344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No2c800$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5531152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No5c756.71$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.634812.5%6 W · 42 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No4c754.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8816616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No5c735.73$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.416051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No6c692$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.715650%78 W · 78 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa525…9820backed No3c689.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No10c679.73$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7846330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No2c639.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.213243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No3c624.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.592117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No3c610.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.582543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacff…c8b6backed No3c574.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8191…3868backed No7c530.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.55475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+29.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b0…d650backed No53c509.49$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.177570.7%53 W · 22 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02f0…d710backed No3c500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517921.2%38 W · 141 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x907d…00dabacked No4c480.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5370…0e83backed No4c474.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked Yes45c471.86$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.315022.7%34 W · 116 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+43%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No4c432.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.971691.8%3 W · 166 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No5c390.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.974211.9%5 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+59.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1a3…4757backed No4c384.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes52c370$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.583953.8%21 W · 18 L+8.0wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+105%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No7c342.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5124110.8%26 W · 215 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe107…1a64backed No3c341.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No8c341.05$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.926632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5b…2f76backed No3c338.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Yes48c332$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.312176.2%16 W · 5 L+7.0wins+0.33per pick43cpaid+79.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes67c315.58$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.816834.5%58 W · 110 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed No5c314.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.43555.5%3 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-92.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cd5…f2cfbacked Yes74c300.55$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.25742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcba2…7bd4backed No4c294.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.95728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+59.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No10c293.81$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.441,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd41d…9d9dbacked No5c287.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No7c285.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.788142%34 W · 47 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No11c263.73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.311,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No4c231.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.07449.1%4 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3862…d0acbacked No9c225.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes49c220.5$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.815768.4%39 W · 18 L+11.1wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+38.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes43c209.79$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.795558.2%32 W · 23 L+15.2wins+0.28per pick31cpaid+73.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xbcf8…5b23backed Yes19c208$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0875…318dbacked No8c167.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b5f…0ecdbacked No11c150$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.351233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6f1…09dabacked No11c150$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06d5…09d5backed Yes44c122.59$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.731442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65e6…399abacked Yes45c115.76$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked Yes35c101.58$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0612556.8%71 W · 54 L+12.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No14c72.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5299017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xbd91…b664backed Yes77c54.35$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.35728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e45…1efbbacked No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77be…a093backed Yes54c29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba63…6271backed Yes37c28.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.113339.4%13 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e6…90f4backed Yes60c26.62$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.621060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a4a…3242backed Yes72c24.93$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+69.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fc8…5709backed No46c24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.961216.7%2 W · 10 L-4.5wins-0.37per pick54cpaid-76.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1a23…184abacked No65c22.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0174…2150backed No62c21.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.41per pick61cpaid-68.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd721…d52dbacked No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.41643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.