AI · resolved market
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x108677b8622766ef788ca23e55977e885fbe8c179a08c634bc247b898e7c1f5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 52c | 2,742$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.52 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 50c | 800$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 33c | 508.55$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.31 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 53c | 270$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 45c | 261$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.7 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 159.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 137.49$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…6901backed Yes | 48c | 97.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319e…1068backed No | 52c | 97.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 37c | 86.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 81.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa556…ed9abacked Yes | 47c | 81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd70…b2b1backed Yes | 52c | 66.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…09d5backed Yes | 53c | 66.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 47c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdffa…e54cbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…e221backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…b464backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd862…f135backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…23a0backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…2d21backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…fe38backed No | 71c | 47.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed No | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 27.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 26.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 54c | 20.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…bc17backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae5…6fc8backed No | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 58c | 18.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…e26cbacked No | 54c | 18.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…4943backed Yes | 65c | 16.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%?this page
- Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be below 75%?No won
- Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be between 80% and 82.5%?No won
- Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be between 82.5% and 85%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.