AI · resolved market
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be between 82.5% and 85%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a12e30f5a5cf2a6b60eb7e36baa412ca7a25c609f03d66bb729c96a090d4709
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c32…12adbacked Yes | 72c | 276.71$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 28c | 151.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.48 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 20c | 93.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa556…ed9abacked Yes | 19c | 81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 29c | 51.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be between 82.5% and 85%?this page
- Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%?No won
- Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be below 75%?No won
- Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be between 80% and 82.5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.