Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c873199d65303d37f27e6f48beab42de9320af42a475bad59312643e42848e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 55c | 887.44$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.35 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 817.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 57c | 428.16$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.11 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 55c | 421.06$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 388.8$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed No | 4c | 357.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 10c | 330.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3929…afd2backed No | 48c | 312.94$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 62c | 272.11$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 269.17$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 13c | 249.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 5c | 234.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 61c | 227.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 17c | 213.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 36c | 212.06$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 36c | 212.05$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 211.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 195.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 67c | 194.41$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 21c | 187.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 41c | 183.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 45c | 174.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.61 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 28c | 172.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 77c | 170.56$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 56c | 156.45$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.42 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 44c | 154.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 33c | 154.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 61c | 150.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 66c | 142.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 142.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 142.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 31c | 133.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 126.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 42c | 125$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 10c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 38c | 110.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 16c | 109$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…3895backed No | 43c | 102$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 77c | 99.06$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 53c | 95.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 35c | 93.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 57c | 93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 15c | 92.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 91.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 28c | 89.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 69c | 88.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6618…6881backed No | 39c | 84.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 47c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 21c | 77.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 59c | 75.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 64c | 73.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 28c | 72.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 33c | 68.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 35c | 65.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 37c | 59.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…845bbacked No | 59c | 58.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 34c | 58.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 36c | 55.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72b…ac69backed Yes | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 43c | 52.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6a8ebacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 43c | 49.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 47.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 36c | 44.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 67c | 44.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 43c | 41.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 74c | 40.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 40.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 36c | 39.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 36c | 39.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 39.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f9…1f63backed Yes | 76c | 39.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 38.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 56c | 38.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 37.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 64c | 36.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 46c | 36.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 42c | 35.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked No | 34c | 34.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 33.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 36c | 33.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 38c | 31.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 62c | 31.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 57c | 30.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 35c | 30.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 70c | 27.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 40c | 27.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 27.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…9145backed Yes | 68c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 65c | 25.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 6°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.