Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6774780fcfea59b5148366f5e473ed19c450a96480b1b7cc33d31b1d91784d64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 977.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 46c | 430.22$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.67 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 379.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 9c | 345.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 279.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 272.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 51c | 241.44$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.32 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 14c | 178$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 21c | 154.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 46c | 150.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 18c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 15c | 149.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 28c | 147.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 14c | 146.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 22c | 144.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 13c | 127.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 122.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72b…ac69backed Yes | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 13c | 116.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 11c | 114.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 14c | 109.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…6775backed Yes | 13c | 107.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 11c | 107$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 106$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 11c | 96.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 78c | 94.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 16c | 91.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 18c | 84.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 12c | 81.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 70.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 49.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 77c | 30.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 51c | 29.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 45c | 27.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 19.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 79c | 15.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 6°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.