Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad17371e5975c91afe37e6106addbf09770818a76990fb4274c1a3077a9f8334
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 3c | 690$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 587.7$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 523.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 523.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 2c | 491.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 388.8$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 319.99$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 25c | 300$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 215.83$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 5c | 202.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 191.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 165$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 150.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 118.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 114.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 101.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 75c | 99.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 93.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 23c | 90.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 23c | 89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 84.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 83.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 82.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 76c | 76.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 74.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 71.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 71.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 69.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 26c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 19c | 66.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 18c | 64.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 25c | 59.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…52f2backed No | 80c | 51.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed No | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 49.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 47.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 74c | 46.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 46.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 76c | 44.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 40.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 39.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 39.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 37.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 74c | 28.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 25.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 76c | 24.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 72c | 24.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 74c | 16.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 15.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 14.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 6°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.