Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96e4d91a54532ebb088a8621877c198433d6f072564640d40090117d1038c450
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Up | 14c | 8,644$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.16 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Down | 63c | 4,517$2,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,685.03 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 24c | 3,391$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.28 | 305 | 43.6%133 W · 172 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608e…d69abacked Up | 22c | 800.43$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 51c | 764.48$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.88 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…de95backed Up | 12c | 763.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…a663backed Up | 3c | 752.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Up | 19c | 749.28$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.77 | 154 | 21.4%33 W · 121 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed Up | 14c | 733.46$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Up | 17c | 400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…7776backed Down | 78c | 387.9$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Up | 16c | 369.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed Up | 20c | 350$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…c988backed Up | 21c | 319.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Up | 36c | 267.76$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…6fc8backed Up | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…96cbbacked Up | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3464…8112backed Up | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -67%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…0c45backed Up | 17c | 243.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 38c | 202.75$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e0…c1bbbacked Up | 52c | 202.38$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Down | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…5217backed Up | 23c | 195.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Up | 20c | 185.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 76c | 167.82$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…0776backed Up | 50c | 163.51$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15e…d4f8backed Down | 68c | 155.54$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Up | 26c | 153.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Down | 69c | 148.16$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed Up | 33c | 141.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef69…b235backed Up | 24c | 141.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a71…a3ecbacked Up | 22c | 140.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 35c | 136.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…0f20backed Up | 25c | 132$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d7…e559backed Up | 23c | 125.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Up | 12c | 124.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c0…5a03backed Up | 36c | 116$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…b6bcbacked Up | 32c | 102.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…09d5backed Up | 51c | 102$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed Up | 31c | 101.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b74…33f9backed Up | 16c | 100.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…9e4bbacked Up | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…0f0abacked Up | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x254d…550cbacked Up | 19c | 98.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…12a9backed Up | 30c | 94.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…b2eebacked Up | 18c | 89.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…64fabacked Up | 27c | 70.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…50e4backed Down | 79c | 62.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Down | 66c | 61.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked Down | 71c | 57.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…fd1dbacked Down | 80c | 56.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x210b…9ddbbacked Up | 29c | 53.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Up | 26c | 52.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Up | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…f93abacked Up | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked Down | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12e…7939backed Up | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…6a77backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed Down | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6eb…8761backed Up | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Up | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…fc4fbacked Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bae…b9c9backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8284…7769backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…e3b8backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…af7fbacked Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742e…91b6backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b8…f5e0backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…c85abacked Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7d…6e93backed Up | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x599a…c33fbacked Down | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Down | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…2a83backed Down | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…38f8backed Down | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…b4ebbacked Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63d3…752fbacked Down | 76c | 49.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f5…a159backed Down | 79c | 47.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Down | 76c | 42.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…27bebacked Down | 62c | 39.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…bc1cbacked Down | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Down | 75c | 29.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c30…6b70backed Up | 37c | 28.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Down | 62c | 24.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked Down | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…bc3bbacked Down | 77c | 19.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.