IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70d19b6156d1c24cc537c3083e234f37377398797a9b2f29aecb1203f6d3bfeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $246,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $234,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $246,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 322 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf1c…2ebbbacked Up | 72c | 20,000$14,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Down | 50c | 14,292$7,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,165.59 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Down | 18c | 14,270$2,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,627.82 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Down | 23c | 13,163$3,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,034.76 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Up | 52c | 12,981$6,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,234.21 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +202.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 66c | 11,665$7,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,007.95 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Down | 31c | 10,769$3,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,329.8 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed Down | 53c | 8,015$4,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,223.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked Down | 14c | 6,191$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Up | 64c | 4,105$2,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,459.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Down | 33c | 3,798$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.34 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Up | 44c | 3,140$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,752.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453b…1575backed Down | 22c | 3,140$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed Down | 39c | 3,111$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.91 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed Down | 62c | 2,695$1,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,670.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed Down | 59c | 2,665$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc20…8c98backed Up | 78c | 2,500$1,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb513…b9a6backed Up | 68c | 2,471$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f1…65c4backed Down | 21c | 2,330$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…5dcdbacked Down | 56c | 2,269$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…fdf7backed Down | 14c | 2,228$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…0a93backed Down | 14c | 2,200$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…7b9cbacked Up | 41c | 2,185$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +182%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd6…10d4backed Down | 64c | 2,149$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Down | 50c | 2,135$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.28 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd173…1b86backed Down | 14c | 2,066$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…dadabacked Down | 22c | 1,960$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Down | 33c | 1,873$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +187.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Down | 57c | 1,822$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.53 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Down | 11c | 1,818$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…9afcbacked Down | 56c | 1,799$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…d8c6backed Down | 22c | 1,759$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…ee7abacked Up | 77c | 1,673$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Down | 45c | 1,554$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.25 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873c…ac48backed Up | 75c | 1,473$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…feb0backed Down | 17c | 1,448$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…31f0backed Up | 40c | 1,438$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Up | 48c | 1,420$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.4 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4db1…e2abbacked Down | 41c | 1,378$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d5…7344backed Up | 39c | 1,281$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…6ba4backed Up | 34c | 1,238$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6547…82b3backed Up | 63c | 1,228$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Up | 44c | 1,138$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Up | 60c | 1,045$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.59 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xece1…00d1backed Up | 48c | 1,008$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Down | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked Down | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked Down | 49c | 972.11$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.51 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Down | 19c | 954.55$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4837…7a22backed Down | 54c | 931.47$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Down | 48c | 880.19$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…047ebacked Down | 59c | 866.53$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb217…5383backed Up | 72c | 831.9$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Down | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc1…ea30backed Down | 53c | 798.43$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Up | 34c | 782$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x925a…f115backed Up | 76c | 734.99$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…7676backed Up | 48c | 726.59$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.59 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…86cfbacked Up | 51c | 699.99$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c1…0e00backed Down | 3c | 645.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe7…ffc9backed Down | 28c | 629.51$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Down | 56c | 621.53$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.05 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…4e5bbacked Down | 16c | 617.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Down | 50c | 613.26$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.34 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Down | 24c | 612.21$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…4781backed Down | 10c | 600$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed Up | 41c | 595.11$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Down | 23c | 590.3$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.78 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Up | 46c | 589.85$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.17 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Down | 66c | 585.91$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Down | 54c | 540.99$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.4 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Up | 28c | 537.54$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Up | 46c | 528.01$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x527f…69a3backed Down | 38c | 520.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc8…6d66backed Down | 19c | 519.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Down | 41c | 503.68$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…e623backed Up | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…ab48backed Up | 79c | 500$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Down | 17c | 482.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…8710backed Up | 30c | 465.07$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a1…069cbacked Up | 56c | 454.55$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb30…6498backed Down | 35c | 429.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…2dadbacked Up | 78c | 425$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Down | 44c | 422.34$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.83 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…7811backed Down | 57c | 420$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Down | 59c | 411.73$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4460…54d1backed Up | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb56…c1bcbacked Up | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…5606backed Up | 51c | 395.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Down | 7c | 371.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…7cc3backed Down | 23c | 352.59$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…3651backed Up | 64c | 349.98$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Down | 58c | 343.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7109…d106backed Up | 72c | 335$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Down | 19c | 325.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…d985backed Down | 64c | 314.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191d…17febacked Up | 72c | 306.3$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Up | 72c | 303.39$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Down | 49c | 300.18$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…bf12backed Down | 47c | 294.34$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.