Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e4a4006fb7dc2d0c5dc6e64db23ac931238a10d9132f953155573b8a47c5e41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Down | 9c | 1,533$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.16 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Up | 50c | 1,084$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.93 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…6fc8backed Down | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…96cbbacked Down | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3464…8112backed Down | 38c | 997.5$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -67%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Down | 26c | 862.81$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.32 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Up | 60c | 517.81$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.75 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Down | 20c | 497.45$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21af…6ba0backed Down | 37c | 414.5$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Up | 54c | 412.09$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.33 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 74c | 393.03$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.59 | 303 | 43.2%131 W · 172 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…a663backed Down | 48c | 350.49$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.4 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…b066backed Up | 74c | 341.79$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 24 | 95.8%23 W · 1 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 72cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…6816backed Down | 47c | 330.33$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.81 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Down | 14c | 298$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…638abacked Down | 42c | 285.09$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff6…4a29backed Down | 49c | 265.27$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 60c | 220.76$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 65c | 212.64$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb31…0b4fbacked Down | 53c | 181.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Down | 35c | 177.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | +34.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Down | 38c | 165.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Down | 13c | 155.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…09d5backed Down | 49c | 139.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ee…4653backed Up | 75c | 130.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…6bbfbacked Down | 23c | 124.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked Up | 56c | 112.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Down | 34c | 112.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf665…0f03backed Up | 62c | 110$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Down | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Down | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…ae37backed Up | 65c | 96.64$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed Down | 51c | 91.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Down | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8abd…99e6backed Up | 51c | 77.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdb…ba6cbacked Up | 57c | 68.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7838…3e84backed Down | 51c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4af…66dabacked Down | 53c | 57.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c34…aa97backed Down | 44c | 55.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…4947backed Up | 79c | 54.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Up | 71c | 52.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb61…eddcbacked Down | 48c | 52.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc1…9c55backed Down | 42c | 51.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed Up | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Up | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…7660backed Down | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked Up | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed Down | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed Down | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Down | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9065…3710backed Up | 55c | 48.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…ebf4backed Up | 53c | 48.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1280…368fbacked Up | 65c | 45.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…9330backed Up | 51c | 30.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc491…8012backed Down | 50c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc23…730cbacked Up | 62c | 18.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.