Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0c318a8258e7763f7fd4aaa5f316b88a5770d0bcb7a4f709c10cce31698d5fc

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $761,487
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $451,136

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $761,487 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 539 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	1c	61,789$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.16	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	9c	21,388$2,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,019.5	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	11c	18,545$2,034 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,033.72	350	24%84 W · 266 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7579…94c6backed No	62c	14,406$8,961 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,445.05	16	75%12 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.11per pick	64cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	17c	10,703$1,769 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,769.22	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	1c	10,182$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.04	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	13c	10,181$1,370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,369.99	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	26c	9,133$2,364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,364.2	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	14c	8,253$1,183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,183.35	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	7c	8,163$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.63	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes	6c	8,142$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.64	160	23.1%37 W · 123 L	+11.0wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	10c	7,384$762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$762.33	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	27c	7,281$1,934 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,933.58	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	5c	6,797$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.14	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019f…1152backed Yes	9c	6,353$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$559.51	41	31.7%13 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	12c	5,735$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.57	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1740…d7c0backed No	69c	5,500$3,776 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,723.95	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	7c	5,490$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.96	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	73c	5,255$3,835 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,419.23	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	18c	5,150$941 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$941.41	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes	5c	5,146$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.67	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	26c	4,932$1,268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,267.69	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	4c	4,529$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.77	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed Yes	1c	4,522$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.65	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa13f…1e76backed Yes	14c	4,023$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$552.86	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	3,675$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30e2…77e1backed Yes	45c	3,597$1,607 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,607.12	86	30.2%26 W · 60 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33dc…5051backed Yes	1c	3,585$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.88	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+11%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x302f…a568backed Yes	17c	3,581$594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594.31	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+272.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2094…16d0backed Yes	3c	3,193$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.43	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	3,191$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.87	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e07…36a9backed Yes	4c	3,056$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.23	95	11.6%11 W · 84 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	22c	2,907$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625.28	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes	7c	2,857$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.99	83	20.5%17 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	2,846$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.44	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	5c	2,797$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.66	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes	14c	2,742$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.4	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbab9…b809backed Yes	23c	2,735$627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$627.3	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	1c	2,594$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.97	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	1c	2,508$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.57	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9188…372ebacked Yes	26c	2,504$656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656.41	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	25cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	28c	2,496$699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$698.79	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	13c	2,478$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.75	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x074b…ffc9backed No	67c	2,300$1,540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$759.99	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	13c	2,290$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.89	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	15c	2,259$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.67	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	2,251$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.47	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	22c	2,200$486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	3c	2,171$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.02	130	8.5%11 W · 119 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+95.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	34c	2,076$697 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$697.13	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	1c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	13c	2,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	1,993$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.12	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No	75c	1,988$1,484 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$504.09	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	1,988$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.98	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	13c	1,972$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.7	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	13c	1,968$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.93	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a84…3788backed Yes	1c	1,912$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	13c	1,902$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.84	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	14c	1,894$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.27	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No	79c	1,888$1,486 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$402.13	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd187…c76cbacked Yes	13c	1,883$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.4	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0aea…8951backed Yes	19c	1,880$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.56	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	12c	1,851$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.82	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3cc…185cbacked Yes	14c	1,757$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.96	66	24.2%16 W · 50 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+46.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	40c	1,730$691 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.45	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked No	46c	1,700$782 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$917.97	164	27.4%45 W · 119 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	16c	1,687$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.09	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	22c	1,637$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.31	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	39c	1,565$615 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$614.52	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf48…136dbacked Yes	1c	1,564$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	3c	1,502$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.06	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42ed…5ebabacked Yes	6c	1,500$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	-5.2wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	9c	1,492$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.91	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa323…e0eebacked Yes	14c	1,488$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.77	60	15%9 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f796backed Yes	1c	1,442$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	94	12.8%12 W · 82 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47d7…df89backed Yes	12c	1,437$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.89	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	18cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b19…ca35backed Yes	18c	1,436$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.22	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c46…ae13backed Yes	19c	1,427$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.8	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	4c	1,416$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.8	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes	20c	1,410$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.97	173	24.3%42 W · 131 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x653f…c386backed Yes	15c	1,387$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.83	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf06d…26f7backed Yes	4c	1,338$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.86	110	11.8%13 W · 97 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	14c	1,324$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.18	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2957…964ebacked Yes	3c	1,300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x983d…76aebacked Yes	11c	1,261$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.88	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe213…f828backed Yes	36c	1,256$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.71	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d27…94c9backed Yes	8c	1,203$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.5	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	3c	1,196$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.16	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes	1c	1,181$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12e6…d6cdbacked No	77c	1,142$877 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264.87	52	42.3%22 W · 30 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	9c	1,139$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.1	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddab…505ebacked Yes	24c	1,138$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.83	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	25c	1,128$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.38	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa845…563ebacked Yes	34c	1,111$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.15	54	33.3%18 W · 36 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a5e…81ffbacked Yes	24c	1,072$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.36	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b57…71d6backed Yes	27c	1,041$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.01	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	11c	1,040$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.95	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event