Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a923f30d6ec5139400b6a5689d77d51d8f014b64fa84fdf10c5cb92cdc14b8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $488,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $256,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $488,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 0c | 57,710$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.73 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 0c | 45,257$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ca…46c8backed Yes | 0c | 29,471$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb488…96d0backed Yes | 1c | 22,999$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 4c | 12,018$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.15 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 10,738$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.19 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 8,764$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.32 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…3251backed Yes | 1c | 7,836$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 7,696$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 2c | 7,467$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 6,603$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,569$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…d091backed Yes | 1c | 5,311$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +254.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299b…8994backed Yes | 4c | 4,989$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.73 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,844$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92d…a225backed Yes | 2c | 4,523$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 233 | 8.2%19 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…c76cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,669$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,034$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 328 | 1.2%4 W · 324 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 0c | 3,016$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 1c | 2,726$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8181…f5fbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,573$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes | 0c | 2,566$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 301 | 10.3%31 W · 270 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,479$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 1c | 2,389$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed Yes | 2c | 2,254$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 2c | 2,154$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d8…2922backed Yes | 1c | 2,125$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 480 | 6.9%33 W · 447 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 144 | 13.9%20 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,921$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,919$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 1c | 1,303$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…a338backed Yes | 1c | 1,237$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 364 | 4.7%17 W · 347 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,137$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 1c | 1,050$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 182 | 4.4%8 W · 174 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,033$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 361 | 13.3%48 W · 313 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 1c | 998.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 1c | 985.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e1…f7e5backed Yes | 2c | 676.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked Yes | 2c | 625.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 2c | 620.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…83a2backed Yes | 2c | 554.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 4c | 517.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 4c | 350$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 4c | 279.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.