Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2f2bb9f46a4cfb138b47c1a3dc2017cb18e36b3f8c75116a1cd26d91bb50ef7

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $293,344
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $130,873

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,344 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes	0c	19,011$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5ca…46c8backed Yes	0c	15,302$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	5cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	0c	14,618$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.05	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	13,192$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.21	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	12,972$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.97	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	8,298$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.07	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a4…d091backed Yes	0c	7,303$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.68	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+254.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	4,905$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.76	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95d8…2922backed Yes	0c	4,244$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	3,759$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes	1c	3,276$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	0c	3,120$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd187…c76cbacked Yes	0c	2,911$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	0c	2,709$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.81	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	1c	1,896$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event