Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7032eb8fc7363ecc6e619bed54357496308859729c333c8781487d4db0f961a

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $705,300
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $396,031

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $705,300 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	0c	84,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.44	359	24.2%87 W · 272 L	-10.7wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5ca…46c8backed Yes	0c	27,534$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.29	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	5cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	27,355$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.02	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	0c	20,188$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	2c	17,328$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.74	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	14,093$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.09	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	0c	13,099$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.59	534	10.5%56 W · 478 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes	0c	12,957$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	47	0%0 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b0c…8638backed Yes	0c	10,801$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	10,565$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.11	1,096	8.2%90 W · 1,006 L	+28.7wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	9c	10,058$902 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$901.88	184	31%57 W · 127 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	8,969$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.13	2,589	13.1%340 W · 2,249 L	+4.5wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88a4…d091backed Yes	1c	8,456$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.53	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+254.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	8,046$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.97	1,809	7.4%133 W · 1,676 L	-24.7wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	6c	7,403$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.99	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,975$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.69	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	4c	4,862$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.8	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	4,427$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.96	577	5.5%32 W · 545 L	+15.8wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	3,989$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.98	898	18.8%169 W · 729 L	+11.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	6c	3,410$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.88	593	20.9%124 W · 469 L	+9.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	3,328$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.36	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	1c	3,251$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	2c	3,113$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.58	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	1c	3,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd187…c76cbacked Yes	3c	2,915$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.24	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	2,639$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.32	903	17.1%154 W · 749 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed33…ad20backed Yes	1c	2,477$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.82	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	2,346$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.43	800	8.8%70 W · 730 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	3c	2,225$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.46	1,061	10.7%113 W · 948 L	-34.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-59%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,153$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.94	1,219	8.7%106 W · 1,113 L	+32.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	1c	2,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	223	23.3%52 W · 171 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	4c	2,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	1c	2,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.1	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	3c	2,000$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.35	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	1,993$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.64	911	10.2%93 W · 818 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	1c	1,936$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.17	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,928$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.96	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24da…02c6backed Yes	1c	1,912$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.94	74	29.7%22 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x299b…8994backed Yes	10c	1,835$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182	66	28.8%19 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	5c	1,549$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.73	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	1c	1,492$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.81	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	1,425$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.73	1,072	13.6%146 W · 926 L	+38.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	2c	1,413$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.43	342	21.9%75 W · 267 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes	2c	1,267$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.58	143	8.4%12 W · 131 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	4c	1,248$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.8	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fe9…25f7backed Yes	4c	1,062$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.85	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes	3c	1,000$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	64	10.9%7 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	8c	998.56$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.86	185	24.9%46 W · 139 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	993.7$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.66	1,041	11%115 W · 926 L	+4.5wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes	1c	984.91$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	958.8$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.75	574	8.2%47 W · 527 L	+12.9wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8181…f5fbbacked Yes	10c	928.95$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.98	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	2c	923.26$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.54	130	8.5%11 W · 119 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+95.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes	5c	897.32$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.78	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	2c	888.16$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.88	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e1…f7e5backed Yes	2c	843.01$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.81	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ee…dacfbacked Yes	5c	807.18$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	4c	800$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.6	263	12.2%32 W · 231 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd97f…7813backed Yes	3c	743.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.26	161	28%45 W · 116 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95d8…2922backed Yes	1c	738.7$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8268…6146backed Yes	2c	621.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+318.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	609.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.42	189	4.2%8 W · 181 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	12c	585.93$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.45	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3cc…185cbacked Yes	5c	580.46$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.83	66	24.2%16 W · 50 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+46.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	5c	552.05$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	9c	550.46$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.69	260	11.2%29 W · 231 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-20%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	530.91$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.18	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…a865backed Yes	4c	502.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.61	116	25.9%30 W · 86 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	9c	450$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	152	5.3%8 W · 144 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+225.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	450$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	837	14.9%125 W · 712 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	3c	438.92$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.21	659	21.5%142 W · 517 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddab…505ebacked Yes	10c	436.1$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.08	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…3251backed Yes	4c	324.82$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.63	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa323…e0eebacked Yes	5c	315.25$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.22	60	15%9 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	8c	304.03$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.45	354	25.7%91 W · 263 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	10c	293.52$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.26	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9290…1257backed Yes	8c	233.22$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.16	56	44.6%25 W · 31 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf663…04debacked Yes	8c	215.82$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.17	43	18.6%8 W · 35 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b26…501dbacked Yes	5c	210$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.9wins	+0.19per pick	21cpaid	+225.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c27…ea1fbacked Yes	6c	195.1$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.19per pick	21cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dbc…4632backed Yes	9c	192.89$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49a5…a67cbacked Yes	7c	190.24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	8c	164.15$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.62	425	10.1%43 W · 382 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x653f…c386backed Yes	7c	164.14$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x731b…83a2backed Yes	10c	136.52$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+2.4wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9b2…96c2backed Yes	10c	135.07$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+1.9wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	9c	117$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.79	403	19.1%77 W · 326 L	-57.7wins	-0.14per pick	33cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc309…3eefbacked Yes	10c	107.26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee8…3b5ebacked Yes	10c	96.97$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.15per pick	25cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event