Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c55a6c6ed95edcac53bf53a3e8836c7b090293fa31f8a8892afbf6ee21b7411

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $469,534
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $252,170

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $469,534 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	64,652$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.47	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	34,500$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.5	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	19,026$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.33	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	7,578$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.46	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	7,188$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.65	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	6,791$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.73	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	6,128$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes	0c	6,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	246	17.5%43 W · 203 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	5,650$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.5	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	4c	5,000$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	3c	4,927$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.15	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	3c	4,302$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.05	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	4,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes	1c	3,918$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.61	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	3,746$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.79	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	1c	3,274$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.25	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	2,996$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.87	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,918$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.56	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24da…02c6backed Yes	1c	2,780$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	74	29.7%22 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	2,599$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.57	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Yes	2c	2,574$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.4	78	11.5%9 W · 69 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	1c	2,539$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.98	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	5c	2,466$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.64	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	2,345$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.83	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	2,300$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.29	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	2,058$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.22	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,030$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	1c	1,932$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	1c	1,919$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.59	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes	1c	1,798$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.75	119	6.7%8 W · 111 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	7c	1,623$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.85	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	3c	1,577$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.41	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes	4c	1,509$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.76	99	11.1%11 W · 88 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,355$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	1,231$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.77	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	4c	1,132$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.99	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	2c	1,107$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.29	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	1,029$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.85	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	104	32.7%34 W · 70 L	+5.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	2c	971.76$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.39	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	873.7$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.41	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	869.28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.08	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	3c	868.53$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.44	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	796.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.15	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	755.02$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.85	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed Yes	2c	738.96$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.53	92	13%12 W · 80 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	5c	678.73$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.23	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes	4c	641.38$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.32	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	600$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	589.65$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.43	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	4c	549.87$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.55	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	3c	526.96$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	3c	496.09$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45fb…f9c0backed Yes	2c	460.48$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f9f…0ad6backed Yes	8c	453.83$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.31	86	9.3%8 W · 78 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	7c	450$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca6…964bbacked Yes	4c	449.98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	432.97$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.81	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	5c	400$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.56	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes	4c	391.78$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.06	285	26.7%76 W · 209 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	3c	365.13$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c06…fbadbacked Yes	4c	351.24$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.05	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	3c	315.01$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.55	118	9.3%11 W · 107 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	9c	299.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc86e…b3e1backed Yes	9c	291.64$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.28	68	16.2%11 W · 57 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f9e…10c8backed Yes	9c	280$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ec…d3f7backed Yes	5c	250.17$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.56	62	11.3%7 W · 55 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes	8c	197.65$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.81	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5825…1c87backed Yes	9c	182.81$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.45	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4577…1b15backed Yes	7c	150$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event