Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46b1bcf82a8dcb1c9ad373fa290c98acb98c0a22b1291bcf397884982ef14765

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $544,859
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $335,084

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $544,859 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	35,257$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.57	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	0c	31,513$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.63	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	21,041$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.79	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes	0c	13,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	246	17.5%43 W · 203 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes	4c	11,977$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.4	115	12.2%14 W · 101 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	11,162$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.75	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	1c	10,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	9,487$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.54	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	8,652$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.87	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	7,901$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.82	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes	3c	7,122$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.86	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	6,528$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.73	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	6,359$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.42	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	6,148$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	3c	5,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	4,483$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.82	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	5c	4,400$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	6c	3,027$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.61	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	7c	2,887$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.32	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	6c	2,875$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.85	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	6c	2,729$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.1	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	10c	2,718$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.76	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	15c	2,620$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.39	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d1…4b1cbacked Yes	8c	2,510$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.93	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	16c	2,475$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.01	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	5c	2,235$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.54	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	10c	2,131$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.44	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	4c	2,130$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.42	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	4c	2,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	0%0 W · 51 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	1,998$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.81	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	1,866$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.26	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	4c	1,862$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.18	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x701f…29f2backed Yes	1c	1,805$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.09	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	1c	1,775$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.87	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	5c	1,688$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.04	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes	4c	1,589$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.19	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	10c	1,538$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.61	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	6c	1,474$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.96	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	8c	1,459$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.34	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	5c	1,443$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.24	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	6c	1,424$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.31	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	4c	1,419$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.79	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes	11c	1,416$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.72	99	11.1%11 W · 88 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	12c	1,368$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.45	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	1c	1,300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	1,293$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.38	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	8c	1,200$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.6	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes	2c	1,200$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	173	24.3%42 W · 131 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d27…94c9backed Yes	16c	1,164$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.6	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e57…831dbacked Yes	5c	1,129$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.36	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	36cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0d…3ec5backed Yes	8c	1,015$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.1	32	25%8 W · 24 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	6c	1,012$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.53	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc8…9e87backed Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+90.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24da…02c6backed Yes	6c	995.05$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.36	74	29.7%22 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	14c	994.1$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.07	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	17c	983.39$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.36	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	6c	948.1$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.7	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	8c	943.52$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.32	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes	9c	911.24$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.33	77	14.3%11 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae31…7fa1backed Yes	4c	890.83$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.53	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+2.5wins	+0.12per pick	22cpaid	+57%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	9c	859.52$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.65	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes	8c	827.85$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.26	171	26.9%46 W · 125 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	6c	775.01$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.73	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bc7…867bbacked Yes	7c	767.32$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.22	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e83…30dabacked Yes	12c	760.61$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.27	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe760…a0edbacked Yes	12c	760$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	700$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.61	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	7c	690.94$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.64	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Yes	5c	649.11$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.24	78	11.5%9 W · 69 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes	4c	640.46$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.69	109	17.4%19 W · 90 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	5c	625.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.86	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x890b…2737backed Yes	11c	624.99$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.75	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	5c	600$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.15	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed Yes	5c	595.92$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.75	92	13%12 W · 80 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	5c	495.4$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.63	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	5c	482.64$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.87	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc3a…b7febacked Yes	18c	478.62$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.15	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	8c	473.79$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed33…ad20backed Yes	9c	466.14$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.38	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	451.96$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	11c	450$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	3c	443.45$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.08	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	7c	443.05$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.85	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0136…8e5dbacked Yes	17c	433.83$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.75	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	4c	427.84$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.95	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	17c	400$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	6c	400$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	3c	389.22$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.98	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45fb…f9c0backed Yes	6c	371.02$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.21	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c06…fbadbacked Yes	8c	370.25$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.62	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	363.2$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.58	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f9e…10c8backed Yes	17c	340.78$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.05	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b4c…4277backed Yes	6c	329.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	67	10.4%7 W · 60 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+55.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…4cc5backed Yes	6c	324.35$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.11	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	11c	323.94$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.53	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x548a…e37abacked Yes	4c	309.18$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.61	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event