Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b1dad0c07ac24b1b60f85cecf23ae914f7041316411a52187ce6ebd18c9a683

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $707,314
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $514,407

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $707,314 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 551 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	22c	18,193$3,980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,980.03	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8829…cfcfbacked Yes	0c	18,113$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.75	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	1c	16,506$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.26	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d69…e597backed Yes	0c	15,781$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.34	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	13c	14,200$1,798 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,798.4	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No	73c	13,410$9,846 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,564.55	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes	27c	11,326$3,089 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,089.1	115	12.2%14 W · 101 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	27c	10,962$2,932 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,931.58	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8b…62fdbacked No	70c	9,108$6,419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,688.89	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+2.4wins	+0.11per pick	60cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	13c	9,053$1,139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,138.73	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	28c	8,955$2,546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,546.42	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	8,775$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.75	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30e2…77e1backed Yes	34c	7,789$2,625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,625.01	86	30.2%26 W · 60 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	69c	7,671$5,292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,379.13	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	24c	7,384$1,762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,762.04	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	5c	7,283$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.63	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	28c	6,561$1,862 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,862.06	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	6,100$608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$607.81	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	13c	5,972$748 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$748.09	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes	5c	5,605$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.18	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	2c	5,230$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.75	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	5,003$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.51	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	2c	5,000$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	5c	4,422$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.46	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	17c	4,227$724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$723.61	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	71c	4,199$2,983 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,216.5	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	33c	4,190$1,368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,368.22	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	13c	3,967$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516.5	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	15c	3,907$601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$601.47	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x266e…17e5backed Yes	28c	3,743$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050	69	30.4%21 W · 48 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	9c	3,651$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.93	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	5c	3,600$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.49	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ee…6b9bbacked Yes	17c	3,480$602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602.4	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	38c	3,390$1,288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,288.15	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	24c	3,287$774 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$773.77	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2b0…cfa1backed Yes	21c	3,273$692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$692.21	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	23c	3,185$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$737.34	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	30c	3,102$930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$929.98	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	17c	2,692$457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.7	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	18c	2,547$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.68	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	20c	2,547$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504.63	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	19c	2,358$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.07	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	15c	2,330$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.91	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes	9c	2,301$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.09	62	30.6%19 W · 43 L	+5.2wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x731a…9062backed Yes	9c	2,300$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	22c	2,226$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.29	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe9…25f7backed Yes	1c	2,035$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.72	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd187…c76cbacked Yes	21c	2,009$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.11	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	51	0%0 W · 51 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes	20c	2,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	164	27.4%45 W · 119 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	12c	2,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf787…3559backed Yes	22c	2,000$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	26c	1,961$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.81	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18e4…8e4ebacked Yes	15c	1,893$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.78	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-77%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes	19c	1,878$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.82	99	23.2%23 W · 76 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+60.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	14c	1,799$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	18c	1,781$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.16	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	33c	1,752$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$578.33	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa471…8b84backed Yes	20c	1,714$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.26	114	24.6%28 W · 86 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53fb…e92abacked Yes	20c	1,701$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.76	107	33.6%36 W · 71 L	+7.0wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	21c	1,692$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.88	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30cf…704abacked Yes	29c	1,637$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$473.68	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes	10c	1,600$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.1wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	7c	1,600$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.6	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes	18c	1,565$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefc8…4676backed Yes	19c	1,509$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.72	65	32.3%21 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes	25c	1,508$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.92	173	24.3%42 W · 131 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes	33c	1,500$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$502.35	106	29.2%31 W · 75 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	9c	1,500$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes	21c	1,468$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.91	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	63c	1,456$913 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$543.17	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cef…5ea3backed Yes	17c	1,440$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.24	50	22%11 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0295…ed9dbacked Yes	21c	1,409$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.7	40	35%14 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc507…6054backed Yes	13c	1,403$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.67	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.9wins	+0.10per pick	24cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes	38c	1,356$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518.19	74	32.4%24 W · 50 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	34c	1,334$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.19	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c46…ae13backed Yes	2c	1,334$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	79c	1,327$1,048 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.47	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	15c	1,325$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.02	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4c…e62fbacked Yes	23c	1,302$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes	20c	1,300$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266	176	28.4%50 W · 126 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	5c	1,293$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.54	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe823…2a61backed Yes	19c	1,290$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	+2.6wins	+0.08per pick	23cpaid	+97.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes	8c	1,270$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.6	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+2.3wins	+0.10per pick	31cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35e0…44e0backed Yes	21c	1,237$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.81	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes	13c	1,200$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	151	36.4%55 W · 96 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	12c	1,200$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	5c	1,177$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.85	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2957…964ebacked Yes	29c	1,100$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4753…1d8fbacked Yes	8c	1,100$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	14c	1,074$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.66	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfeb4…98c3backed Yes	13c	1,065$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.93	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-84.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	11c	1,062$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.34	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	5c	1,050$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.26	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes	32c	1,027$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.27	97	26.8%26 W · 71 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	17c	1,015$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.39	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes	6c	1,003$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.69	341	27.3%93 W · 248 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	14c	1,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event