Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5046ddc5d917b4c631f0b00ccc6be978e849916b98b09284f25ea6772569b78b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe205…bc3ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,206$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 939.04$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 67c | 881.55$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.65 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 30c | 702.64$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.52 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 28c | 650$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.08 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 36c | 644.37$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.03 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 30c | 602.06$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.16 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed No | 73c | 595.73$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.55 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 28c | 500$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.16 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 25c | 458.56$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.78 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 423.19$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.62 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 24c | 343.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.61 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 4c | 341.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 32c | 300.4$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 291.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 268.7$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 254.65$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 27c | 244.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 28c | 234.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 214.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 8c | 209.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 47c | 202.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 26c | 199.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 189.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 164.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 68c | 145$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 70c | 142.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 67c | 141.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 134.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 132.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 127.89$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 31c | 125.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 63c | 118.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b37…0eb2backed Yes | 38c | 113.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 111$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 110.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 47c | 104.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 73c | 103.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 31c | 101.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…f7adbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 28c | 95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fd…d60dbacked Yes | 43c | 92.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 77c | 90.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 87.41$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 66c | 85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 82.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 60c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 74c | 76.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed Yes | 27c | 73.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 27c | 72.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56aa…9e31backed No | 71c | 70.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 66c | 70.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 72c | 68.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 31c | 65.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6458…f826backed No | 73c | 65.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…bb30backed Yes | 32c | 62.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…5e1abacked Yes | 26c | 51.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 66c | 47.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 43c | 46.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…d674backed Yes | 30c | 44.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…6b2dbacked Yes | 33c | 41.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…7ee3backed No | 74c | 41.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…9d83backed No | 74c | 39.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…e5b1backed No | 72c | 39.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 38c | 38.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 71c | 37.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…47febacked No | 67c | 36.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 32c | 36.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…d53abacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 31.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 30.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 56c | 29.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 70c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 75c | 28.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 25.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.