Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf34e7c1fd7972f16347d0fbef25e35ed4c7efbe1beaa3a0060603d50be23f5a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,471$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 59c | 1,066$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.32 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…b4dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,030$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 47c | 815.03$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.02 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 36c | 593.73$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.24 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 24c | 536.7$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 63c | 507.17$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.38 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 51c | 464.52$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.17 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 54c | 388.08$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.71 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 369.1$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 27c | 337.4$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 72c | 332.39$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.03 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 45c | 321.06$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.48 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 33c | 299.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.03 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 282.68$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…711ebacked Yes | 39c | 253.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 209.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 42c | 191$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 46c | 185.4$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 32c | 181.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 169.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 165.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 160.95$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 34c | 149$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018b…5372backed No | 68c | 148.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 31c | 148$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 24c | 148$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked No | 68c | 147.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…d8f8backed Yes | 35c | 144.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 141$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 59c | 133.19$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 44c | 129.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 28c | 122.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 64c | 117.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 54c | 114.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 27c | 101.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 50c | 100.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…ae6abacked No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 97.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 75c | 96.66$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 62c | 94.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 65c | 92.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 91.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 65c | 89.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 43c | 88.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 34c | 87.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…b2eebacked Yes | 29c | 85.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…9577backed Yes | 47c | 82.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 46c | 81.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 77.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 62c | 76.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 75.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 58c | 73.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…bb30backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 46c | 68.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 65.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 62.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…123abacked Yes | 44c | 60.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed Yes | 40c | 60.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 68c | 58.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 32c | 55.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae8…6012backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…5e1abacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe205…bc3ebacked Yes | 42c | 49.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 47c | 49.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed Yes | 48c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 44.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 62c | 41.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 43c | 40.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b0…0a60backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…5083backed No | 61c | 38.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 36c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 60c | 37.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 56c | 36.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 32c | 35.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 55c | 35.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25fa…e196backed No | 55c | 34.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…9ec2backed Yes | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…1f74backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 28.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.