Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3b9330538581da81dad0349abd24c6845f1b2e7afae3a0bbf98596bd8faf754
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 3c | 2,490$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 4c | 1,020$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 5c | 867.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 7c | 683.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 9c | 578.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 564.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 9c | 528.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…7ee3backed Yes | 21c | 325.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 4c | 268.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 6c | 257.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 15c | 251.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 5c | 248.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…4ed5backed Yes | 5c | 241.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 114 | 4.4%5 W · 109 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 8c | 229$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 5c | 220.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 14c | 210.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 17c | 178.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 175.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Yes | 7c | 172.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 10c | 163$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…8bb0backed Yes | 7c | 158$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 136.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 11c | 132.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 11c | 130.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 16c | 127.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…f34cbacked Yes | 9c | 126.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 11c | 109.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 12c | 104.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 16c | 93.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 15c | 91.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 24c | 89.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…5e1abacked Yes | 15c | 78.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 19c | 66.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 20c | 62.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 26c | 60.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…123abacked Yes | 19c | 58.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 22c | 57.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 27c | 46.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.