Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ce79ce2975367cd7ccdfa94bfb32104b75b41c5043417fb575f9e916ef8aea6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 1,356$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 5c | 1,054$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 923.25$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 862.48$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.43 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 40c | 599.66$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.88 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 578.85$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 62c | 440.8$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.38 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…7ee3backed Yes | 21c | 419.24$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 17c | 401.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.65 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 22c | 386.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.06 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 17c | 375.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 68c | 375$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.65 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 49c | 373.5$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.16 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 373.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 14c | 362.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.29 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 344.51$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 327.25$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 12c | 292$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 19c | 285.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.38 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 12c | 285.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.36 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 75c | 255.52$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 254.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.41 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 46c | 248.73$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.27 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 243.15$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 20c | 209.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 78c | 202.05$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.51 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 42c | 200$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 61c | 187$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…ae18backed No | 50c | 184.27$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 178.18$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 70c | 156.13$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 13c | 152.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.83 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.69 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 140$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 17c | 138.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.66 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 59c | 125$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 18c | 119.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked No | 19c | 117$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 18c | 115.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…123abacked Yes | 52c | 115.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 47c | 114.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe205…bc3ebacked Yes | 44c | 110.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 109.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 74c | 107.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 15c | 103.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…701abacked No | 27c | 102.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 48c | 98.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 34c | 96.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 18c | 92.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed No | 29c | 89.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 46c | 89.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 54c | 89.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 78c | 88.27$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 52c | 77.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked No | 20c | 74.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 29c | 70.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 19c | 69.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed No | 18c | 68.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 58c | 65.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 20c | 65.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 39c | 63.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 66c | 63.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 59c | 63.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 31c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 39c | 57.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 38c | 54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 65c | 51.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…1b4bbacked No | 60c | 51.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 77c | 50.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7389…9b89backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 77c | 48.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7fd6backed Yes | 37c | 43.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 36c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 71c | 36.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 61c | 34.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 43c | 33.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 37c | 33.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…730cbacked No | 54c | 32.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 55c | 31.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.