NHL · resolved market
World Championships: Canada vs. USA
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33f89a41ab059ebf33123c4712197f04b9be098f3e61ec777f4d89d7067c190c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadaof Canada, USA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed USA | 11c | 4,259$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.55 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…9cc3backed Canada | 79c | 2,671$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.64 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed USA | 21c | 1,642$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.7 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…8d4cbacked USA | 2c | 1,581$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…08bcbacked USA | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed USA | 22c | 999.97$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Canada | 80c | 876.58$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.32 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…2394backed Canada | 80c | 626$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed USA | 5c | 620.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed USA | 21c | 594.89$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed USA | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed USA | 22c | 450.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed USA | 9c | 439.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab6b…521bbacked USA | 18c | 350.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed USA | 21c | 333.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Canada | 79c | 322.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Canada | 79c | 310.37$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8d…2762backed USA | 21c | 288.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked USA | 21c | 273.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f7…c4e4backed USA | 21c | 273.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked USA | 5c | 257$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed USA | 14c | 218.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed Canada | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 110 | 61.8%68 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…fcbfbacked Canada | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked USA | 14c | 180.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…cd4ebacked USA | 13c | 170.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5132…61a7backed USA | 28c | 167.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Canada | 79c | 149.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Canada | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed USA | 20c | 137.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fe…9fe1backed USA | 21c | 133.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked Canada | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…db07backed Canada | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 242 | 59.1%143 W · 99 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Canada | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa943…bcbebacked Canada | 80c | 119.51$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed USA | 12c | 105.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Canada | 72c | 102.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Canada | 77c | 100.69$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked USA | 20c | 100.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…b676backed USA | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -72%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Canada | 79c | 96.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked USA | 21c | 80.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…d2ebbacked Canada | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Canada | 74c | 68.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8917…be6fbacked Canada | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed USA | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…f94abacked Canada | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…7ee3backed USA | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…377bbacked Canada | 80c | 41.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed Canada | 78c | 40.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac6…c90bbacked Canada | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa76…ca4fbacked Canada | 80c | 28.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…75dcbacked Canada | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…8213backed Canada | 78c | 23.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…bba2backed Canada | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…349bbacked Canada | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…ac6fbacked Canada | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9568…56e3backed Canada | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1428…cb95backed Canada | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb012…cc87backed Canada | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e73…2f39backed Canada | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Canada | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…e884backed Canada | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…0039backed Canada | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…d58cbacked Canada | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2db…8f5fbacked Canada | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.