Commodities · resolved market
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa86e081fb2f536283f1c7b89ebf3e13ade978315f8629557ca99956ebf35ba93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 8,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,195$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,911$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fb50backed Yes | 15c | 1,713$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.13 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 3c | 1,330$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,001$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked Yes | 2c | 999.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ce…e196backed Yes | 19c | 644.32$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 6c | 387.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Yes | 6c | 256.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8963…de64backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 156.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 151.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 11c | 139.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…7ee3backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +180.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?this page
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?No won
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?No won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.