Commodities · resolved market
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd845126ff90453d2731d06ed976cc0dd9d4819597737855f37dad72fc768926
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 9c | 3,027$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…f7a9backed No | 79c | 1,573$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.91 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,191$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.4 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 18c | 1,095$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.49 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 16c | 743.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.59 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…2e69backed Yes | 19c | 678.39$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 12c | 670.15$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba35…3bdfbacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…61dcbacked Yes | 13c | 500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed Yes | 26c | 481.03$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.29 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x479d…d469backed Yes | 10c | 462.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1af5…89babacked No | 63c | 453.86$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 308.13$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 250$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 246.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…e92fbacked Yes | 21c | 235.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…7fe5backed No | 78c | 222.98$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…4f75backed Yes | 19c | 207.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 21c | 205.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd5…382cbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked No | 77c | 198.3$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 190$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…08fdbacked Yes | 35c | 179.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 16c | 174.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 50c | 143.78$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked Yes | 21c | 140$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 15c | 135.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 128.03$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 80c | 125.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 13c | 122.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 14c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 20c | 100.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a4…62ddbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…174bbacked Yes | 20c | 98.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 97.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 71c | 94.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 75c | 90.77$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 19c | 68.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…e8e0backed Yes | 25c | 67.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 64c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed No | 61c | 60.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 57.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ce…e196backed Yes | 48c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0322…d688backed Yes | 47c | 32.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 62c | 26.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 54c | 22.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked No | 64c | 18.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?this page
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?No won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.