Commodities · resolved market
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc2ec85e12dbb818b7a36b08c8a1afd8eb46e3f67da2d2e4f748ea5a21f5c869
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 1c | 4,184$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 22c | 886.66$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.37 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 590.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 33c | 526$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.65 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 33c | 502.06$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.06 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…08fdbacked Yes | 27c | 501.68$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x479d…d469backed Yes | 58c | 462.5$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…31adbacked Yes | 44c | 450.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 46c | 429.93$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.77 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…61dcbacked No | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 17c | 390.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 384$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.65 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 52c | 345.06$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.92 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…9411backed No | 41c | 217.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 211.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.16 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 34c | 202.87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726a…200cbacked No | 70c | 200.36$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.07 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 196.47$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 49c | 195.7$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.66 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 74c | 188$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba35…3bdfbacked Yes | 54c | 186.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 33c | 179.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.14 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945f…8125backed No | 53c | 173.83$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 37c | 159.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 33c | 127.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 37c | 105.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 103.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd5…382cbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 97.1$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…4f75backed Yes | 49c | 96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…712abacked No | 66c | 76.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…e8e0backed Yes | 58c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 27c | 64.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…b010backed Yes | 30c | 52.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179a…b41abacked Yes | 37c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…5c84backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…087bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4382…efeabacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 73c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 47.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…5fecbacked No | 62c | 46.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e3…6867backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 79c | 37.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 32.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked No | 79c | 31.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 78c | 30.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 29.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -14.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 70c | 24.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d5…3378backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2b…51c2backed Yes | 64c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 18.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked No | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?this page
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?No won
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?No won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.