TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,223
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,500

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,223 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x929d…7ee3backed Yes35c1,839$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.211040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+180.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dea…045ebacked No20c1,507$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.37650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+252.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes27c1,243$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.325632.1%18 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc004…c095backed Yes73c1,183$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.012450%12 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes26c1,178$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.835018%9 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc04…4f75backed Yes34c1,112$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.572055%11 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00d2…fb50backed Yes26c1,010$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.43234.4%11 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-35.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5082…049dbacked Yes29c879.89$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.114548.9%22 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No18c822.26$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.9414031.4%44 W · 96 L-0.6wins0.00per pick32cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No35c725.39$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.942055%11 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No20c713.6$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.941926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2518…31adbacked No15c667.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No51c629.57$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.472944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7db8…ed19backed Yes32c624.4$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.935529.1%16 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fa…aeecbacked Yes70c557$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.1520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-71.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x726a…200cbacked Yes53c540.78$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.621631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6725…1bf9backed Yes19c539.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid+8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x479d…d469backed Yes46c488.6$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.57683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+34.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe172…e8e0backed Yes37c485.49$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.78666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8d…42d7backed No10c470.18$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No34c459.52$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.479741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf58c…d588backed Yes45c442.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.272718.5%5 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe450…91b9backed Yes67c439.87$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.46136.1%22 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40c9…664dbacked Yes59c435.58$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.91933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf9b0…a817backed Yes68c412.32$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.32650%13 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+66.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1d4…8df3backed Yes54c367.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes20c365.65$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.1624126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No37c363.03$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.941241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes38c343.77$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.385036%18 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes38c331.51$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.2218440.2%74 W · 110 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07e0…1db9backed No63c329.99$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.32433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked Yes19c309.07$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.395152.9%27 W · 24 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+26.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes7c300$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2793237.5%12 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bef…7fe5backed Yes30c285$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.71944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No73c280$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.615020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No64c277$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.794553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa23e…b010backed Yes73c267.99$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.492339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48c7…e4b0backed No12c245.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.143010%3 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No47c240$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.62147.6%10 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes16c228.55$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.093250%16 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+56.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No64c195.54$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.181471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+41.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x975e…7292backed Yes56c176.79$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No69c166.62$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.773557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No72c155$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.92653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xded8…d5ebbacked Yes25c151.4$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.843644.4%16 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes8c150.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.63812.5%2 W · 79 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed No76c146.12$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.64562.2%28 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No15c132.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.443821.1%8 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No43c130.53$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8121815.6%34 W · 184 L-37.8wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-68.9%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0x3a59…6c6fbacked Yes31c114.57$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.251471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+23.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No71c110.74$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.981553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes66c110$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.582250%11 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes31c101.8$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.92653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e6…2149backed Yes21c100.79$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+379.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4907…cdc2backed Yes21c97.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.031546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick28cpaid+133.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6acb…76babacked Yes21c95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+375%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No70c93.54$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.182552%13 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x154e…911fbacked Yes20c90$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723964.1%25 W · 14 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+29.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x54c6…c8d5backed Yes76c79$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No48c69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.452955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No71c68$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5716276.5%124 W · 38 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdba2…3497backed Yes21c58.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.19757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick28cpaid+105.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c2…41b8backed Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No68c48.18$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.842157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507b…0742backed No69c47$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.43742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick62cpaid-43.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21a3…9e97backed Yes25c45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.82420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x614e…ddf8backed No80c43.11$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes24c41.66$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.514520%9 W · 36 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+72.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0cd9…fcfebacked Yes30c40.19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+238%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0278…bff4backed No77c34.76$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.771752.9%9 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick70cpaid-28.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x582a…7bb2backed No77c31.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.985135.3%18 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.55253.8%28 W · 24 L+8.4wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+72%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8519419.1%37 W · 157 L-35.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-63.9%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No41c29.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.332339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8b…80c5backed No71c29.24$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.81450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd9c…bc17backed Yes49c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+67%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc9d…285dbacked No74c27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No61c27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.471442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No73c24.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.672842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No77c21.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.591450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No61c18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.981729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-54.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No78c14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.962552%13 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.