Commodities · resolved market
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15a27b4ab344a2f7c9f6589d56c2533c9c6f615c7411bfe661fd7777b230e6e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f76…dedfbacked Yes | 68c | 1,449$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes | 37c | 1,291$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.24 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 70c | 845.15$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.89 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 753.8$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.64 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 670.64$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.29 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 63c | 586.65$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cc…feb0backed Yes | 71c | 547.92$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.66 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 31c | 534.14$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 505.56$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.27 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 8c | 500.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed No | 28c | 499.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked Yes | 72c | 499.99$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.5wins | -0.58per pick | 74cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ca…bc04backed Yes | 7c | 468.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 20c | 400$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x40c9…664dbacked Yes | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 60c | 377.53$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked Yes | 59c | 364.27$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.21 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 40c | 334.27$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.02 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b19…6759backed Yes | 7c | 304.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 51c | 274$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.08 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5979…7fbdbacked Yes | 75c | 229.6$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…6c6fbacked No | 40c | 219.78$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.1 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 61c | 200$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe657…89a5backed No | 27c | 196.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 195$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.97 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 184.64$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.88 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 27c | 180$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 166.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 160.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 184 | 40.2%74 W · 110 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 39c | 148.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.32 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…69e7backed Yes | 77c | 143.67$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 140$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 61c | 140$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 35c | 132.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 98.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 32c | 86.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 15c | 83.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 35c | 81.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 79.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 62c | 77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked Yes | 38c | 69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 54c | 67.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4869…509bbacked Yes | 23c | 66.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 74c | 62.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 61.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 23c | 55.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 26c | 55.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a68…33bfbacked No | 30c | 49.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d29…71c2backed Yes | 54c | 48.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d3…2014backed Yes | 71c | 47.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 70c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…b010backed Yes | 69c | 41.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…d5ebbacked No | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 69c | 36.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aed…f5e6backed Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…80c5backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 29.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce1…f25fbacked Yes | 49c | 27.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…972fbacked Yes | 71c | 20.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4026…7e86backed Yes | 61c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9224…ecc1backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 69c | 14.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?this page
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?No won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.