Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c7c47af1ffa13c12e43f40466aeb20f55f306cf813332437ee0b8440fa755bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 2,402$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 4c | 800.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 12c | 784.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 570.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 3c | 551$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…7ee3backed Yes | 12c | 542.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 12c | 431.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 11c | 246.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 238.13$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 12c | 213.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 183.21$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 8c | 182.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 16c | 163$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 160.56$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 137.06$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 27c | 108.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 105$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed Yes | 11c | 104.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 19c | 103.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 12c | 99.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 14c | 93.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 15c | 71.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 17c | 67.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 19c | 56.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 24c | 49.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 79c | 21.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.