Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8f75bff52b697a3f201652d06fac0e2edc33053a7480f8ad7ca9c215aa17b0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 53c | 2,186$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.37 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 709.46$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.08 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 571.76$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 54c | 384.51$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.73 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 370.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 343.97$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 62c | 323.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.06 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 292.13$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 260.92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 60c | 259.75$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 257.21$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 253.04$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 32c | 242.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 62c | 242.11$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 237.1$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 42c | 231.6$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.36 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 31c | 227.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.78 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 216.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 206.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 48c | 202.72$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.44 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed No | 63c | 198.07$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.17 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 37c | 187.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 186.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.64 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 35c | 174.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 14c | 171.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 67c | 163.9$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 58c | 154.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 68c | 147.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 38c | 141.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 57c | 140.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 72c | 139.42$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 33c | 136.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 24c | 136$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 29c | 134.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 130.16$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 35c | 128.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 42c | 121.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 75c | 121$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 34c | 117.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 60c | 116.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 40c | 113.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 113$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 110.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 109.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 47c | 108.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 48c | 107$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 27c | 103.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 30c | 90.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 39c | 82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 40c | 79.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 57c | 69.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 57c | 69.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 33c | 69.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 51c | 65.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 41c | 65.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes | 62c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed No | 50c | 63.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 48c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 18c | 62.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 47c | 57.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…fd5abacked Yes | 52c | 55.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 49c | 53.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 33c | 50.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 50c | 48.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 48.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 31c | 46.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 65c | 46.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 38c | 45.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…cd36backed Yes | 57c | 43.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 37c | 43.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…358bbacked Yes | 55c | 41.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 71c | 41.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 64c | 40.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34c…9fecbacked Yes | 67c | 39.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 63c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 34c | 38.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 52c | 38.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 47c | 38.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 60c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e0…77e4backed Yes | 72c | 34.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 66c | 33.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 56c | 32.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 45c | 32.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.