Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd139674f6cc9fcbcfc83c87f29a1ff44e852f357e6d76d5ceb6794d657c6d978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x929d…7ee3backed Yes | 3c | 3,591$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 25c | 1,279$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 1,043$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 1,033$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 771.08$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.45 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 23c | 393.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 27c | 377.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 312.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 31c | 308.83$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 291.38$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 282.01$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 254.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 18c | 248$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 28c | 241.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed No | 77c | 240.67$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 225$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 210.94$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 27c | 205$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 71c | 198.01$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 24c | 196.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 25c | 195.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 9c | 179.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 178$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 29c | 173$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 17c | 166.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56aa…9e31backed No | 62c | 160.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 30c | 160.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 155.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 154.07$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 20c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 149.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…298bbacked No | 70c | 143$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 30c | 138.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 135$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 134.87$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 72c | 132.79$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 76c | 129.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 21c | 122.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 70c | 118.43$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 71c | 114.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 38c | 111$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 105.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 29c | 104$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 102.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 25c | 100.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…62a3backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 99.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 16c | 95.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 22c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 12c | 85.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 16c | 81.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 76c | 79.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 28c | 78.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 38c | 77.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 26c | 76.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 18c | 68.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 26c | 67.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 20c | 66.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 63.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 61.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 60.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 58.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 28c | 57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 45.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 38c | 44.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 75c | 44.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 30c | 43.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 65c | 42.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 38.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 38.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 35.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 31.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed No | 70c | 31.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c7…0cfdbacked No | 71c | 29.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 24.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 22.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 74c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 72c | 19.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 78c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 79c | 19.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 79c | 13.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.