AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x917b6d9d69a3488949122ebb6a825e52a9d6f942351b2d879c3a4a19099e18b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $169,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 321 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 36c | 31,140$11,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,363.02 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 9,423$5,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,923.13 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…f534backed Yes | 43c | 8,002$3,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,425.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe917…9612backed Yes | 48c | 6,009$2,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,887.71 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 39c | 5,947$2,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304.51 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 5,832$3,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,126.2 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 64c | 5,809$3,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,694.96 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed Yes | 39c | 4,224$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 57c | 3,993$2,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.82 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes | 38c | 3,737$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 3,477$1,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,586.87 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 6c | 3,468$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.31 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 27c | 3,330$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 3,301$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.87 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 49c | 3,119$1,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,577.76 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,962$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.48 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 2,601$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.71 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 36c | 2,408$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.35 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 59c | 2,364$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.07 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…7ee3backed Yes | 38c | 2,298$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bc…81cebacked Yes | 66c | 2,177$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 2,069$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.51 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 71c | 1,421$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.81 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 1,250$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.34 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea9…bdc1backed Yes | 40c | 1,225$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6607…5bd9backed Yes | 39c | 1,200$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…51c8backed Yes | 46c | 1,168$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 42c | 1,086$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.22 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 1,059$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.42 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 48c | 1,049$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 37c | 1,028$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.8 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…6c4ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed Yes | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 990$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.1 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 924.46$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.68 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed Yes | 44c | 900$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 884.63$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.53 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…1b7fbacked Yes | 24c | 831.85$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 39c | 827.86$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.72 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes | 3c | 799.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a71…78c9backed Yes | 41c | 799.99$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 34c | 758.72$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.37 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…7b9cbacked Yes | 50c | 739.99$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e6…8303backed Yes | 14c | 729.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 706.73$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.45 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9c…32e2backed Yes | 76c | 661.81$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…50e2backed Yes | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 599.99$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.9 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 57c | 599.7$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.53 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 595.75$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.54 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 70c | 589.88$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.44 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 548.46$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.37 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…ff78backed Yes | 42c | 540.49$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…523fbacked Yes | 35c | 527$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…2675backed Yes | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 18c | 499.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc6…1fc1backed No | 69c | 491.93$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.84 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa1…99a7backed Yes | 21c | 482.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1050…9393backed No | 60c | 467.04$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf042…3a87backed Yes | 74c | 436.16$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 72c | 415.27$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 6c | 411.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ca…729abacked Yes | 71c | 403.16$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0d…3fd3backed Yes | 65c | 402.87$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 402.52$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.41 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…04babacked Yes | 26c | 395.53$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 46c | 392.24$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…f6acbacked Yes | 70c | 383.55$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked No | 63c | 364$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 347.98$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.04 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…4053backed Yes | 7c | 336$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes | 29c | 333.53$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 329.8$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.65 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…33b2backed Yes | 33c | 326.94$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…effebacked Yes | 64c | 318.79$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee8…cf4dbacked Yes | 66c | 303.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…0838backed Yes | 68c | 294.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 59c | 290.67$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.03 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d9…2f93backed No | 76c | 286.83$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…e0c8backed Yes | 67c | 284.5$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53dc…2945backed Yes | 54c | 276.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b0…0664backed Yes | 73c | 272.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb19b…c4f7backed Yes | 74c | 269.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 52c | 269.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.73 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 34c | 262.88$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 62c | 258$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…406ebacked Yes | 75c | 256.83$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…cf89backed Yes | 57c | 256.08$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 40c | 251.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.78 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 8c | 249.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe226…a207backed Yes | 50c | 238.1$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 53c | 230.38$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.44 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…2851backed Yes | 32c | 226.62$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…ce5ebacked Yes | 44c | 222$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…d463backed Yes | 10c | 220.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d2…3585backed Yes | 64c | 214.49$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 49c | 208.21$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.21 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 202.08$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.