TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$169,331
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$158,903

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,331 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 321 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes36c31,140$11,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,363.025016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No58c9,423$5,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,923.137032.9%23 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2412…f534backed Yes43c8,002$3,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,425.85714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-72.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe917…9612backed Yes48c6,009$2,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,887.712722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes39c5,947$2,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,304.5111723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No64c5,832$3,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,126.24946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes64c5,809$3,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,694.968815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76db…6987backed Yes39c4,224$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.251338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No57c3,993$2,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.827943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes38c3,737$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.151127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No54c3,477$1,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.8719432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes6c3,468$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.314818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes27c3,330$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.191136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No70c3,301$2,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.874126.8%11 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No49c3,119$1,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,577.763718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes6c2,962$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.4826312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No59c2,601$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.718942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed Yes36c2,408$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.353925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No59c2,364$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.074736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x929d…7ee3backed Yes38c2,298$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.78633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7bc…81cebacked Yes66c2,177$1,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,426.5640%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes49c2,069$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.516726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No71c1,421$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.815633.9%19 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No66c1,250$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.346439.1%25 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcea9…bdc1backed Yes40c1,225$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6607…5bd9backed Yes39c1,200$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4681250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb3…51c8backed Yes46c1,168$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.641020%2 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-63.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes42c1,086$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.228241.5%34 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes49c1,059$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.4214421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked Yes48c1,049$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003231.3%10 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes37c1,028$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.84157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7609…6c4ebacked Yes37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d93…c671backed Yes51c999.99$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5101747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No58c990$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.13834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No62c924.46$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.687041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8d…6724backed Yes44c900$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3952454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes35c884.63$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.5317824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x45cc…1b7fbacked Yes24c831.85$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.641172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick47cpaid+50.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes39c827.86$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.728746%40 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes3c799.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2460%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a71…78c9backed Yes41c799.99$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-63.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes34c758.72$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.3719818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x896a…7b9cbacked Yes50c739.99$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.381136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26e6…8303backed Yes14c729.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No58c706.73$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.455843.1%25 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb9c…32e2backed Yes76c661.81$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bf6…50e2backed Yes40c600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No51c599.99$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.95848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No57c599.7$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.533647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No64c595.75$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.548741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes70c589.88$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.443855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No43c548.46$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.377448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e59…ff78backed Yes42c540.49$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.791127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-55.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52ca…523fbacked Yes35c527$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.97540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09e2…2675backed Yes69c500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes18c499.97$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.996841.2%28 W · 40 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+54.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1fc6…1fc1backed No69c491.93$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.847100%7 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfaa1…99a7backed Yes21c482.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1050…9393backed No60c467.04$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf042…3a87backed Yes74c436.16$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+50.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes70c428.57$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes72c415.27$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001020%2 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-71.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3517…dab5backed Yes6c411.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.66616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ca…729abacked Yes71c403.16$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f0d…3fd3backed Yes65c402.87$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.99785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick72cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No64c402.52$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.416448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb337…04babacked Yes26c395.53$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.88616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-78.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe807…4d35backed Yes46c392.24$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.53650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fee…f6acbacked Yes70c383.55$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked No63c364$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No70c347.98$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.047538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaae6…4053backed Yes7c336$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.06911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-80.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes29c333.53$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.72560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No56c329.8$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.658547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8810…33b2backed Yes33c326.94$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.49616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-72.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…effebacked Yes64c318.79$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.911050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+140.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcee8…cf4dbacked Yes66c303.81$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7280…0838backed Yes68c294.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No59c290.67$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.0389317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xe3d9…2f93backed No76c286.83$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c68…e0c8backed Yes67c284.5$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53dc…2945backed Yes54c276.55$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6b0…0664backed Yes73c272.27$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb19b…c4f7backed Yes74c269.61$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes52c269.33$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.7325632.8%84 W · 172 L-24.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes34c262.88$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.62347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No62c258$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.284055%22 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7ab…406ebacked Yes75c256.83$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+41.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9007…cf89backed Yes57c256.08$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.21560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No40c251.76$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.782650%13 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes8c249.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe226…a207backed Yes50c238.1$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No53c230.38$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.442343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a22…2851backed Yes32c226.62$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce8…ce5ebacked Yes44c222$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c7b…d463backed Yes10c220.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.741127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+98.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79d2…3585backed Yes64c214.49$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No49c208.21$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.212236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c202.08$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2647938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.