AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02b7f820cd1902f9229012fe20f928a33af95ad539e1941a21794cb1d5e04238
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe917…9612backed Yes | 4c | 20,085$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.91 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 1c | 19,645$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.5 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…61b4backed Yes | 1c | 14,845$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.25 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 7,900$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 7,747$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 8c | 6,739$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.67 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…1f1fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,504$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.44 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 4c | 3,918$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.59 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,680$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,069$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 3c | 1,758$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1881…f322backed Yes | 1c | 1,731$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 1,638$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,514$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab7…3892backed Yes | 1c | 1,360$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,250$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 1,104$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0948…61a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 766.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 6c | 704.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7eb…31c3backed Yes | 5c | 654.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7340…4e09backed Yes | 6c | 599.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…8f77backed Yes | 3c | 432.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 424.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 4c | 410.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…d641backed Yes | 7c | 348.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5753…fa31backed Yes | 8c | 340.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 5c | 335$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 324.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…33b2backed Yes | 3c | 321.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 4c | 312.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x921d…efb8backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 4c | 261.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…4279backed Yes | 5c | 230$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa4…cd4ebacked Yes | 9c | 186.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6602…089fbacked Yes | 9c | 174.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdea…c050backed Yes | 72c | 71.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 28c | 49.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.