Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ab3a0ec45fbd3406fa85bb4be4d6cbff641e2178d9655dae6c4f1600641b609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked Yes | 29c | 10,877$3,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,154.33 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 7,500$5,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,175 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 2,487$1,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.7 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…a351backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 19c | 1,868$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.93 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 71c | 1,315$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.42 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 61c | 1,178$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 65c | 881.37$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.24 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 75c | 868.33$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.08 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 34c | 705.49$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.96 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Yes | 43c | 446.69$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.23 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…de4fbacked No | 72c | 403.65$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 28c | 393.5$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.32 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked No | 71c | 386.6$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.11 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 28c | 269.65$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 18c | 238.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…9401backed Yes | 38c | 178$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9530…fb26backed Yes | 13c | 153.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 28c | 137.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 260 | 41.9%109 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…48ffbacked Yes | 29c | 134.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 134.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 75c | 122.17$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 29c | 120.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 79c | 119.03$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked No | 52c | 115$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…7ee3backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa425…0a5abacked Yes | 34c | 88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 76c | 78.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 72c | 76.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 29c | 65.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 68c | 64.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b10…2920backed No | 72c | 62.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…1517backed No | 57c | 61.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…a28bbacked Yes | 28c | 48.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 45.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 79c | 33.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf406…060dbacked No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15fc…fec7backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 72c | 19.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 79c | 13.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?this page
- Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-08-22?Yes won
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-08-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.