TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9117…f87c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
77
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NFL, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 52 out of 100; worst World Politics at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT5824.1%14 W · 44 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,365Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,365
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$255
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$410
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+900%+$900
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$365
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$3,360Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,359.98
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$2,032Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,032.49
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,102Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$377.26
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,239.99
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$700
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$420
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$900
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,478Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+103%+$1,522.5
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.25
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,140Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$1,860
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$870
Will Canada win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-38.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+107%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,800Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$1,200
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$230
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.