Asian League · resolved market
Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x180142f7f630c25bd5925673196dcab8d327efc2b23c6be787108591bc111fcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 41c | 1,065$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.26 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 21c | 632.6$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 45c | 581.25$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.59 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 27c | 431.6$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.11 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 18c | 393.8$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8c…dfbebacked Yes | 68c | 333.82$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Yes | 26c | 285.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.71 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1e…2a7dbacked Yes | 71c | 282.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed No | 4c | 270.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.24per pick | 3cpaid | +663.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…0933backed Yes | 34c | 263.15$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.26 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 17c | 261.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 195.25$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.58 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…f48bbacked Yes | 73c | 188.64$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 53c | 169.37$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 73c | 153.5$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 270 | 37%100 W · 170 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x123f…5143backed Yes | 68c | 146.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…bfa7backed Yes | 72c | 138.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1017…c669backed Yes | 55c | 128.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 49c | 115.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 69c | 108.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 71c | 104.61$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 29c | 102$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 28c | 94.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 45c | 86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 585 | 42.7%250 W · 335 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 35c | 85.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 79c | 83.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 28c | 83.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 34c | 78.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 38c | 78.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes | 67c | 74.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 25c | 74.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 21c | 71.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ede…4284backed Yes | 66c | 69.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1e…53b8backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa182…3106backed Yes | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…2ebfbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 79c | 42.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 62c | 42.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 28c | 40.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 215 | 74.4%160 W · 55 L | +45.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…6475backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…7031backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 71c | 24.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 48c | 21.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 71c | 18.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 326 | 54%176 W · 150 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0edc…82aabacked No | 72c | 15.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…ad6bbacked Yes | 67c | 15.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-30?No won
- Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.