Asian League · resolved market
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b77484f77f67e5c60064410f9148464f5e8d1a796525926bda46143872f9105
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 73c | 5,125$3,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.29 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…344fbacked Yes | 29c | 4,621$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 2,449$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.23 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked No | 71c | 2,254$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.12 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 15c | 914.81$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.22 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked No | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…442bbacked Yes | 29c | 517.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 75c | 413.6$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.62 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…5463backed Yes | 33c | 348.71$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Yes | 7c | 259.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 195.25$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed No | 67c | 164.52$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 32c | 127.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Yes | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8521…df10backed Yes | 33c | 103$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 29c | 102.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1952…dbf9backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 14c | 94.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 35c | 93.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 26c | 87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 74c | 87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 396 | 55.8%221 W · 175 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Yes | 36c | 86.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 67c | 85.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 29c | 75.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Yes | 18c | 73.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 65c | 65.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 72c | 65.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 28c | 49.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 192 | 68.2%131 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 74c | 36.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Yes | 28c | 36.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe702…d88cbacked Yes | 33c | 30.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-30?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.