Asian League · resolved market
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ae90636f725a854da5e2745f04352550e9c3ead33e1109f8242c5a29e401e77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbf4…ac20backed Under | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 79c | 2,025$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 1,654$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.31 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 1,620$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.88 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…e900backed Under | 1c | 1,422$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ede…4284backed Under | 61c | 1,097$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.45 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 34c | 859.06$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.98 | 83 | 18.1%15 W · 68 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 47c | 793.04$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.31 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 40c | 755.37$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.29 | 905 | 44.9%406 W · 499 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…02d8backed Over | 35c | 748.97$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 46c | 716.05$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.86 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 66c | 328.6$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.59 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 33c | 315.77$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.44 | 1,080 | 41.7%450 W · 630 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3639backed Under | 62c | 285.37$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 31c | 245.77$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.77 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf316…c97fbacked Under | 58c | 221.53$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Under | 79c | 179.15$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.53 | 92 | 69.6%64 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 68c | 160$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.47 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 157.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 2,456 | 37.9%931 W · 1,525 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6021…4c5cbacked Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 24c | 127.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.16 | 376 | 62.5%235 W · 141 L | +61.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 25c | 120.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 113.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 70c | 110.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 1,662 | 36.2%602 W · 1,060 L | -34.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 35c | 94.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 71c | 86.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 96 | 72.9%70 W · 26 L | +19.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…5962backed Under | 66c | 85.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 32c | 85.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Over | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 66c | 61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 68c | 57.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 38c | 49.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 398 | 61.8%246 W · 152 L | +56.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…fad2backed Under | 26c | 44.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb5…d972backed Over | 46c | 27.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 57c | 26.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 65c | 24.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 48c | 21.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 89 | 6.7%6 W · 83 L | -22.4wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 64c | 15.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,235 | 49.9%616 W · 619 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.