Asian League · resolved market
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b3acc748b76fcd8d9bdfe965316a940b16900d94b34b2b849e370033470e96a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36f2…dab4backed Over | 52c | 2,332$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.98 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Over | 51c | 1,080$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.2 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 45c | 799.97$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 773.77$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.53 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 46c | 621.83$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.32 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 37c | 563.16$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.96 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 55c | 377.88$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.41 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 38c | 344.38$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.02 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 340.71$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.64 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa410…f61fbacked Over | 56c | 269.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.25 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 50c | 258.83$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.55 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 36c | 252.94$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.74 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 53c | 230.96$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.96 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…f975backed Under | 41c | 217.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 59c | 190.31$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Under | 46c | 187.04$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.04 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 165$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 47c | 145.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…5962backed Under | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed Over | 55c | 118.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…5463backed Over | 55c | 100.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 55c | 93.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 45c | 87.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 45c | 84.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 61c | 80.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 64c | 76.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 63c | 63.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 63c | 59.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…fad2backed Under | 21c | 56.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Under | 46c | 53.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5401…c03dbacked Over | 50c | 48.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 56c | 47.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 47.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 79c | 41.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 207 | 69.6%144 W · 63 L | +31.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 60c | 37.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…7347backed Over | 69c | 25.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…dc88backed Under | 67c | 18.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.