Movies · resolved market
Will 'Moana 2' gross over $200m on 5-day opening?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x912c579535979774287bbc1451914a65098c59c30df652875cd38a4e443c885e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,680,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,495,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,680,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 338 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5115…b61dbacked No | 2c | 220,000$3,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,328.03 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…9237backed No | 11c | 149,794$16,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,481.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 1c | 96,100$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.75 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…f52abacked No | 75c | 58,463$43,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,927.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…4a91backed Yes | 72c | 42,494$30,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,905.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…289abacked No | 10c | 42,114$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,399.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 27c | 41,320$11,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,061.42 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 70c | 40,821$28,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,063.88 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8be7backed No | 67c | 36,920$24,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,585.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 28c | 36,756$10,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,362.47 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 63c | 36,509$23,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,504.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked Yes | 31c | 28,647$8,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,758.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed No | 7c | 24,675$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 68c | 24,003$16,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,693.12 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…6e65backed No | 71c | 23,090$16,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,449.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 28c | 22,213$6,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,920.64 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 33c | 20,890$6,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,869.74 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 72c | 20,533$14,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,666.53 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 2c | 20,159$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.21 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 1c | 18,913$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.68 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…c9cdbacked No | 16c | 14,285$2,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,356.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b3…8498backed No | 74c | 13,598$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 24c | 13,463$3,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,247.59 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…9c7abacked No | 19c | 11,306$2,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,116.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 47c | 11,304$5,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,014.85 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4e…1783backed No | 2c | 10,751$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…ee54backed No | 14c | 10,400$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.79 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 8c | 10,170$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.58 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed No | 78c | 9,427$7,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,320.44 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 7c | 8,077$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.25 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…f437backed No | 21c | 8,031$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed Yes | 36c | 6,958$2,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,450.51 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b50…0b49backed No | 54c | 6,434$3,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,502.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb661…f02cbacked No | 16c | 5,760$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…5985backed No | 18c | 5,714$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c5…d5a0backed No | 55c | 5,523$3,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,045.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -76%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed No | 28c | 5,120$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +185.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…52ccbacked No | 72c | 5,000$3,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,580 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 41c | 5,000$2,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,930.8 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0f…e8bebacked No | 3c | 4,571$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed No | 21c | 4,464$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.67 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 34c | 4,430$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,908.27 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf627…1a8abacked No | 3c | 4,333$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a14…26cfbacked No | 57c | 4,030$2,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,297 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…eb9ebacked Yes | 57c | 4,029$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 34c | 4,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,639.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…64a8backed No | 54c | 3,887$2,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,105.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…d6e2backed No | 64c | 3,735$2,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,404.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…f489backed No | 17c | 3,616$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.67 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 8c | 3,583$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.01 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 2c | 3,339$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a5…c8d9backed No | 72c | 3,300$2,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,366.7 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 61c | 3,054$1,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf121…254bbacked No | 9c | 3,044$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 19c | 2,986$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,406.99 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 39c | 2,880$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,756.93 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…1f84backed No | 3c | 2,820$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 75c | 2,819$2,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.3 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…a27bbacked No | 74c | 2,798$2,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,066.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…2d55backed No | 7c | 2,634$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed No | 37c | 2,626$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.41 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…a0b3backed No | 71c | 2,572$1,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 2,565$1,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.28 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 53c | 2,397$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.95 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…ee63backed No | 16c | 2,395$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 24c | 2,253$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,706.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 74c | 2,167$1,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.44 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed No | 77c | 2,102$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed No | 7c | 2,100$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…6bafbacked No | 15c | 2,017$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed No | 2c | 2,004$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8952…2d93backed No | 13c | 2,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af4…2474backed No | 73c | 1,996$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x455f…518abacked No | 1c | 1,984$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed No | 16c | 1,979$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.83 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8163…1759backed No | 20c | 1,878$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed No | 75c | 1,800$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.49 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 9c | 1,760$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 27c | 1,628$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +1,025.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed No | 70c | 1,565$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.93 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x305f…b169backed No | 10c | 1,533$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0d…38a1backed No | 71c | 1,501$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…e8aabacked No | 30c | 1,500$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,480$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 9c | 1,451$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.57 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 1,447$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.86 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7cca…27d3backed No | 24c | 1,433$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…dd41backed No | 19c | 1,382$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3f…2053backed No | 18c | 1,381$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…35b8backed No | 73c | 1,381$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 25c | 1,335$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.34 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…f8b4backed No | 80c | 1,304$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x621f…9c10backed Yes | 39c | 1,282$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked No | 16c | 1,276$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.5 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24b…2f32backed No | 4c | 1,240$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…3bb1backed No | 12c | 1,231$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed No | 75c | 1,200$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.99 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ef…5191backed No | 2c | 1,183$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.