Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine hits Moscow before 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff1d88fedb62e585bac9e3cb33b24c098c1dce351a3698a37312541723101033
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $231,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $242,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 252 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd4b…75eabacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 79c | 8,552$6,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.35 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f5…d860backed Yes | 24c | 5,497$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…cc73backed Yes | 14c | 3,641$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 37c | 2,907$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.98 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 16c | 2,598$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.85 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…bee1backed No | 76c | 2,592$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,576$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 4c | 2,536$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.89 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e80…490dbacked Yes | 26c | 2,312$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 2,161$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.38 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…4e7abacked Yes | 19c | 2,096$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…f297backed No | 71c | 2,083$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…1acdbacked Yes | 22c | 2,000$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,901$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…ae6cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,844$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 75c | 1,763$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…f860backed No | 78c | 1,665$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,553$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…bb47backed No | 66c | 1,521$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 80c | 1,495$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.69 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 22c | 1,434$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.81 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0125…3f1abacked Yes | 6c | 1,395$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a5…729bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,295$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 72c | 1,276$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.44 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 18c | 1,152$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.48 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d3…dfbebacked Yes | 32c | 1,128$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed No | 70c | 1,121$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked No | 66c | 1,105$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,030$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…c6afbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cda…6221backed Yes | 15c | 999.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…40a3backed Yes | 17c | 998.91$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfde…3cd3backed No | 79c | 994.43$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 66c | 961.56$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.11 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 32c | 787.02$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.86 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 759.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e97…9ddebacked Yes | 34c | 738.12$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 19c | 734.91$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 65c | 712.61$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked Yes | 33c | 707.75$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd295…a832backed No | 71c | 691.44$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 37c | 685.82$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.64 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…744bbacked No | 75c | 667.36$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked Yes | 37c | 613.05$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee1…8d64backed Yes | 27c | 600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 551.75$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.79 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked No | 80c | 538.27$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.27 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 32c | 537.68$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.93 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 21c | 530.78$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce13…f170backed Yes | 35c | 528.49$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…b8f5backed Yes | 31c | 521.49$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb304…3ea2backed No | 67c | 518.94$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…b703backed No | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 12c | 494.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2388backed Yes | 32c | 480$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4372…07f1backed Yes | 23c | 462.47$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 11c | 455.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 14c | 449.15$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…c8aabacked Yes | 12c | 433.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36e…fc56backed Yes | 10c | 431.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25ff…7d04backed No | 80c | 429.91$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f1…05e2backed Yes | 24c | 417.97$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06bb…37c0backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a1…2320backed Yes | 12c | 410.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7105…6857backed No | 79c | 403.03$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 30c | 400.96$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…fbbfbacked Yes | 9c | 399.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…73ccbacked No | 61c | 393.76$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0939…8137backed No | 66c | 389.52$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 6c | 382.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 33c | 375.62$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.72 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b9…3ae9backed Yes | 3c | 372.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…e666backed Yes | 14c | 370.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 26c | 367.03$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…6003backed No | 70c | 358.09$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fc…9e7abacked No | 70c | 358.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc8…0235backed No | 77c | 351.47$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…ca20backed No | 69c | 329.78$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe531…f0a4backed No | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…5985backed No | 80c | 321.98$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 78c | 320$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb043…9440backed No | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf7…f721backed Yes | 22c | 311.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…c356backed Yes | 34c | 300$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…cf08backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…a49cbacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc222…3d96backed Yes | 50c | 299.52$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020c…506bbacked No | 65c | 294.25$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…cbb2backed No | 74c | 282.54$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked Yes | 26c | 273.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7064backed Yes | 30c | 265.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed No | 70c | 255.54$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 80c | 251.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 59c | 242.44$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcb…b800backed Yes | 14c | 236.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…4f09backed Yes | 16c | 212.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f31…49cbbacked No | 73c | 205.05$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a85…37c8backed Yes | 11c | 200.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.