Premier League · resolved market
Will Portugal win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x468ee4c48ac454b4dd4392f8ec370eea32c3c9e9d2dbfc2547b712eb0b1939a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 61c | 77,720$47,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,078.12 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 39c | 20,375$7,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,946.4 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed No | 39c | 20,000$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,800 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 38c | 11,665$4,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,422.69 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 39c | 8,141$3,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,174.84 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 39c | 7,409$2,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,889.35 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 39c | 6,464$2,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed No | 38c | 6,000$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,279.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…e37fbacked No | 39c | 2,626$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 37c | 1,945$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.53 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 38c | 1,146$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.34 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…998dbacked Yes | 61c | 1,142$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.92 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked No | 39c | 1,025$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.73 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked No | 39c | 972.18$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17c1…a606backed Yes | 61c | 830.03$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked Yes | 65c | 785.9$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.9 | 420 | 43.8%184 W · 236 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9c…429cbacked Yes | 62c | 686.06$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked No | 38c | 632$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.16 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…0dfabacked No | 39c | 576.92$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…113bbacked Yes | 68c | 393.93$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.93 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x734d…b810backed No | 39c | 341.03$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c41…deedbacked Yes | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…a98fbacked Yes | 62c | 312.27$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…ef25backed No | 39c | 305.13$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…c835backed Yes | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d68…5e64backed No | 40c | 177.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…8fe6backed Yes | 62c | 177.03$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Yes | 61c | 174.39$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…d498backed Yes | 60c | 168.1$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c0…79ddbacked Yes | 62c | 164.74$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…c2ebbacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee3…61bebacked Yes | 62c | 154.73$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…a151backed No | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…3b6bbacked No | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e7…2255backed No | 39c | 145.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78b…926dbacked No | 40c | 137.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 40c | 131.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c1…5b99backed Yes | 62c | 114.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes | 59c | 113.34$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cb…24b6backed No | 40c | 110.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…7777backed Yes | 62c | 110$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…bb47backed Yes | 61c | 106.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0124…2feabacked No | 41c | 104.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…d714backed No | 40c | 85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…fecbbacked Yes | 61c | 82.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5035…da9abacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfedc…0241backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a1…9b67backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…96a2backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…0d22backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d30…37c9backed Yes | 59c | 71.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 39c | 56.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…938fbacked Yes | 61c | 49.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffdf…7834backed Yes | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…5aa6backed Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…3300backed Yes | 62c | 40.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +160%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7060…37a2backed Yes | 62c | 34.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…7537backed Yes | 61c | 32.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…8457backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…8491backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…d75fbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf581…e0c3backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…3fc9backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…3c29backed Yes | 62c | 31.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…35eebacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec4…d66bbacked Yes | 60c | 24.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe756…9bd0backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…2b5dbacked Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…7af1backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec5…9fe0backed Yes | 62c | 23.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedfe…8707backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb489…2632backed Yes | 62c | 16.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…2180backed Yes | 62c | 16.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portugal win?this page
- Will Turkey win?No won
- Will the match be a Draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.