TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-07?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$174,998
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$175,473

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,998 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 346 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee00…cea1backed No31c16,343$5,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,268.8128355.5%157 W · 126 L+17.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No41c12,519$5,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,386.118950.3%95 W · 94 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked No43c12,114$5,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,886.6140254.7%220 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes59c9,956$5,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,872.8522050%110 W · 110 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd815…4c7abacked Yes56c6,520$3,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,62410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed No73c6,410$4,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.664766%31 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20cc…ebc0backed No60c6,076$3,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460.2211657.8%67 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked No42c5,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,899.978750.6%44 W · 43 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ef8…eff3backed Yes56c4,822$2,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,711.783946.2%18 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes28c4,637$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.2879650.8%404 W · 392 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d52…94c4backed No44c4,000$1,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,219.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Yes24c3,727$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.737841.8%158 W · 220 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9478…63f5backed No75c3,179$2,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.475959.3%35 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed No46c3,000$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.0632158.9%189 W · 132 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0c3…0230backed Yes41c2,667$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.4930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes56c2,657$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50039561.3%242 W · 153 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2753…2683backed Yes58c2,609$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes62c2,419$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50011342.5%48 W · 65 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Yes57c2,340$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.6956453.9%304 W · 260 L+27.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No41c2,222$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.9616848.8%82 W · 86 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes59c2,126$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.477651.3%39 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ac9…7d06backed Yes56c2,095$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.31513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-67.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d92…4b39backed No70c2,049$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce0…8d6fbacked No46c1,986$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.718633.7%29 W · 57 L-14.7wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-36.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes32c1,937$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.8729643.6%129 W · 167 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Yes54c1,859$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.7725339.1%99 W · 154 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5db…b42dbacked Yes59c1,840$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.722050%10 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x236b…67c7backed No43c1,578$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.78475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+61.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed No41c1,500$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.9940640.9%166 W · 240 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes2c1,484$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.42520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-68.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a8a…0acdbacked Yes51c1,472$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7504926.5%13 W · 36 L-7.8wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-44.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes12c1,439$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.817034.3%24 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2752…8ce3backed Yes59c1,269$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.582853.6%15 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid+13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa492…d264backed Yes58c1,236$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.96450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Yes54c1,200$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.982157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Yes53c1,182$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.5932736.4%119 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1875…eb5ebacked Yes58c1,166$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.45429.6%16 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54a1…7cb1backed Yes41c1,025$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.371154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bdc…3a4ebacked No44c1,020$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.614963.3%31 W · 18 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No67c1,007$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.4169772.6%506 W · 191 L+83.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+26.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3053…c721backed No46c1,002$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcee4…7c66backed Yes55c1,002$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dc4…3c1dbacked Yes59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5902142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Yes57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5708145.7%37 W · 44 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0448…75aabacked Yes58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5801225%3 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-64.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed No45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55034643.9%152 W · 194 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No44c981.02$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.0168026.3%179 W · 501 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Yes8c979.34$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3519743.7%86 W · 111 L+32.4wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+142.5%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x7432…794bbacked Yes45c968.41$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.6311937%44 W · 75 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddfa…f9dfbacked Yes59c867.61$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.89425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4345…77fabacked Yes3c867.36$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.013228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x495c…512bbacked Yes59c847.46$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3483…cdabbacked Yes58c808.67$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.4520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-73.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes59c707.03$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.1544939.6%178 W · 271 L+1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed Yes56c692.22$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.1190751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes37c672.78$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.9329044.8%130 W · 160 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55ea…2ba7backed No75c663$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22c9…045cbacked Yes42c643.62$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.32333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed Yes50c630$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.721353.1%113 W · 100 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45db…2caebacked Yes58c603.44$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e8…0819backed Yes57c591.73$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.45837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e30…ef89backed No59c580.44$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.441136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked Yes58c549.99$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.994839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8cd…3cf2backed No41c544.48$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.88362.7%52 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x578a…ef44backed Yes58c520$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.62536%9 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68cf…004dbacked Yes52c500$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2591741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes36c460$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16511915.1%18 W · 101 L-10.4wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Yes58c425.84$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.9915347.7%73 W · 80 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9e…d9f9backed No43c416.82$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.267967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x66db…7afbbacked Yes20c385.04$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3937…f693backed Yes58c364.76$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.561241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31b7…bde1backed Yes59c360.78$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.862941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4292…9cd8backed Yes56c355.64$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.161936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed Yes6c346.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.555547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x464e…7bd8backed Yes59c343.94$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.893953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd830…7848backed Yes59c339.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.0950%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2b9…6a5ebacked Yes61c333.84$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.64742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8239…ddd7backed Yes34c319.88$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1109027.8%25 W · 65 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x722c…515fbacked Yes51c302.08$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1543243.8%14 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe763…3d69backed Yes62c291.84$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801931.6%6 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.22per pick54cpaid-49.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1793…51dfbacked Yes7c285.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes56c279.98$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.399348.4%45 W · 48 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed No40c271.16$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.3846660.5%282 W · 184 L+30.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6b00backed Yes23c267.45$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed No40c258.25$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.9515337.3%57 W · 96 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf784…f897backed Yes58c253.78$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.19955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8074…2615backed Yes59c246.83$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda3d…9964backed Yes59c241.75$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.63714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick53cpaid-74%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe438…9471backed Yes52c238.6$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252030%6 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-45.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xee9d…63e1backed No67c223.88$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.885050%25 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Yes19c210.09$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.864742.6%20 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11029653%157 W · 139 L-23.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x33dc…9661backed Yes55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11642755%235 W · 192 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2599…61cdbacked Yes56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+36.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10ae…cb95backed Yes55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7dc…9908backed Yes57c199.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.998937.1%33 W · 56 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed No51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0819336.8%71 W · 122 L-14.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Yes41c192.17$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.974560%27 W · 18 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+97.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x19dd…2cffbacked Yes55c188.04$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4270%0 W · 7 L-3.8wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.