Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c98a34f34915e73dae6e8fcbe4b0031ff667cee6926dcdbf4c475f9044dd635
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 20c | 17,943$3,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,498.89 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 75c | 6,361$4,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.86 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 29c | 3,302$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.86 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e44…79c9backed Yes | 23c | 3,184$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef8…eff3backed Yes | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 25c | 1,670$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.48 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked No | 75c | 1,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 9c | 1,430$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.32 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac9…7d06backed Yes | 26c | 1,163$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 75c | 1,062$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.5 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 63c | 1,012$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.5 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 75c | 987.18$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.79 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed Yes | 5c | 736.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a6…61ffbacked Yes | 30c | 666.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…ef44backed Yes | 30c | 641.33$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1e…cdb6backed Yes | 28c | 553.57$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…4e7abacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed No | 74c | 408.33$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbe…d37abacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…9826backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…5014backed Yes | 29c | 392.78$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -14.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 65c | 365.53$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 12c | 339.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes | 17c | 335$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 20c | 300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 119 | 37%44 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 193 | 36.8%71 W · 122 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09e8…9c65backed Yes | 25c | 221$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Yes | 33c | 151.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…591abacked Yes | 29c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 149$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…a7dcbacked No | 65c | 105.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…4763backed Yes | 35c | 101.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…0050backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 28c | 88.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…471ebacked Yes | 23c | 87.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…2529backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…bde1backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bb…ad38backed Yes | 17c | 60.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dc…9908backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -9.0wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce86…f868backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed No | 67c | 53.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…12a3backed Yes | 24c | 45.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1152…931fbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c1…a7cbbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 197 | 43.7%86 W · 111 L | +32.4wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…52dbbacked No | 76c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 75cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-07?No won
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.