NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Hawks

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa97e12407b731c710100063c0b6b3ddefa002260f269c891dc9d4f5c7e6c75de

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Wizardsof Wizards, Hawks
Resolved: Oct 29, 2024, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $28,581
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $31,851

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,581 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6761…a94fbacked Hawks	73c	4,285$3,128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,128.04	92	48.9%45 W · 47 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards	27c	2,500$675 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,824.99	1,782	28%499 W · 1,283 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Wizards	27c	2,000$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,460	228	32%73 W · 155 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Wizards	42c	1,361$578 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$783.28	656	42.5%279 W · 377 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Hawks	10c	1,138$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.26	208	51.4%107 W · 101 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Hawks	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	1,290	44%567 W · 723 L	+35.0wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Hawks	30c	984.19$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.15	615	32.2%198 W · 417 L	-21.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Wizards	25c	899.62$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$674.72	265	47.9%127 W · 138 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0054…7f85backed Wizards	50c	864$432 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$432	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6283…0cf9backed Hawks	74c	837.84$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	59cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Wizards	43c	692.32$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$392.32	279	39.8%111 W · 168 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0952…786dbacked Wizards	30c	664.74$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$465.32	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Hawks	74c	544.59$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403	165	53.9%89 W · 76 L	-8.5wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Wizards	26c	541.49$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400.7	122	47.5%58 W · 64 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a6…ee95backed Wizards	21c	539.18$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$427.92	47	29.8%14 W · 33 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x205f…0189backed Wizards	20c	369$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$295.2	57	47.4%27 W · 30 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Wizards	28c	357.14$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.14	1,090	35.8%390 W · 700 L	+40.1wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff0…46e3backed Wizards	78c	353.71$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.77	476	56.5%269 W · 207 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x487f…30babacked Hawks	71c	333$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.43	52	48.1%25 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf64…7e54backed Wizards	29c	333$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236.43	52	50%26 W · 26 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d7a…15b5backed Wizards	25c	200$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	276	31.2%86 W · 190 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Hawks	68c	200$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.5	1,166	54.4%634 W · 532 L	+19.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64e3…eef9backed Hawks	74c	181.3$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.21	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.20per pick	60cpaid	+47.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9395…7b2bbacked Hawks	76c	165.34$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.54	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Wizards	25c	163$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.25	1,602	11.8%189 W · 1,413 L	-4.8wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Wizards	26c	152.3$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.7	337	52.5%177 W · 160 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9857…be38backed Wizards	35c	142.86$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.86	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	+4.8wins	+0.13per pick	32cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x47dc…eec9backed Hawks	73c	136.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	51	66.7%34 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	70cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3462…d3d2backed Hawks	74c	135.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	101	53.5%54 W · 47 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78da…9d47backed Hawks	28c	125$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	68	51.5%35 W · 33 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fdd…0b07backed Hawks	72c	109.68$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.22	103	34%35 W · 68 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cfa…12a3backed Wizards	27c	100$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73	73	37%27 W · 46 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…c007backed Wizards	26c	100$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+34.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2ce7…fd4abacked Hawks	73c	100$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	140	57.9%81 W · 59 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cc9…fc51backed Hawks	76c	100$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	-8.5wins	-0.23per pick	66cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x51b1…bce2backed Wizards	26c	99.93$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.95	774	37.5%290 W · 484 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbc2…c8e7backed Wizards	26c	80$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.2	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec8…96a5backed Hawks	73c	68$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.64	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-2.7wins	-0.12per pick	44cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d49…5ec5backed Hawks	74c	55$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.7	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.34per pick	68cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f18…9536backed Hawks	73c	50$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.19per pick	41cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36ed…6950backed Wizards	30c	50$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf957…4d42backed Hawks	73c	50$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70a8…6dfdbacked Hawks	22c	49.47$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.07	163	25.2%41 W · 122 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x141c…16ebbacked Hawks	74c	40.54$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	27	74.1%20 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	73cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa187…a526backed Hawks	75c	40$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	20	60%12 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	67cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb74…c87ebacked Wizards	28c	35.89$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.84	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+78.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb9…0e56backed Wizards	47c	35$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.55	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+2.5wins	+0.25per pick	55cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x860b…e6a3backed Hawks	74c	30$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.40per pick	60cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3c4…55cfbacked Hawks	73c	27.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-23%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x953b…f969backed Hawks	74c	27.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.13	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f7b…417cbacked Hawks	74c	27.03$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x484c…017ebacked Hawks	75c	26.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	67cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4842…7c89backed Hawks	74c	25$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	76cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08a5…6e66backed Hawks	73c	20.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	39	66.7%26 W · 13 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	73cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x079a…ff3abacked Hawks	74c	20.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49e9…9353backed Hawks	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.26per pick	55cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed Hawks	70c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	138	57.2%79 W · 59 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1cc…a21dbacked Hawks	75c	17$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e6d…0acebacked Hawks	75c	17$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.63per pick	63cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x76ff…93d7backed Hawks	74c	16$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	+25%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e1…bb47backed Hawks	73c	14.89$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6096…7fcdbacked Hawks	74c	13.61$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b0…9da7backed Hawks	75c	13.34$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	52	57.7%30 W · 22 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Wizards vs. Hawks

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market